How do traders view the future ten-year trend of the US dollar behind "Bitcoin breaking through $100,000"?

In the first week of 2026, the cryptocurrency market has seen a rare bullish consensus. As Bitcoin breaks through the $90,000 mark, traders are revealing a deep signal through the options market: as the US dollar faces a major turning point in its decade-long trend, they are heavily positioning for Bitcoin to break through $100,000. This market movement reflects not only short-term price expectations but also strategic considerations for long-term asset allocation.

$100,000 Becomes Trader Consensus, Options Market Reveals Institutional Intentions

According to data from Deribit, the world’s largest cryptocurrency options exchange, demand for Bitcoin call options with a strike price of $100,000 expiring at the end of January has surged since early January. This signal is significant—$100,000 is not an arbitrary choice but represents a psychological threshold for Bitcoin entering the “six-figure” era, and also an indirect vote on the future purchasing power of the dollar.

On-chain data from Amberdata shows that in the past 24 hours, open interest in these options increased by 420 BTC, equivalent to approximately $38.8 million, making it the largest increase among all January call options on Deribit. This is not an isolated phenomenon but a systemic capital flow. Currently, the nominal value of call options betting on Bitcoin breaking $100,000 is as high as $1.45 billion, with $828 million expiring in January.

Market maker Wintermute strategist Jasper De Maere pointed out that although recent market capital flows have mainly involved roll-over operations after contract expiration, the trading volume of $100,000 call options expiring on January 30 has noticeably increased, breaking normal patterns. This abnormal movement coincides with an important timing— the US dollar policy cycle is about to enter a new phase.

Capital Allocation Trends and Perpetual Contract Funding Rates Indicate Structural Opportunities

From a microstructure perspective, the current Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate on Deribit has risen above 30%, which is a warning signal. Traders are in a “Short Gamma” (negative Gamma position)—meaning the shorting force in the market has weakened. Once the price breaks above a key level, the forced buying momentum (short covering) will be amplified.

QCP Capital analyzed that when Bitcoin previously broke through $90,000, this structural pressure began to manifest, prompting capital to flow into perpetual contracts and short-term call options. If Bitcoin stabilizes around $94,000, this forced buying momentum will be further amplified, pushing prices higher. In other words, the expectation of dollar depreciation is transforming into bullish momentum—traders anticipate greater depreciation pressure on the dollar over the next decade, leading to increased allocation to non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin.

From Short-term Trading to Decade-long Allocation, Strategic Investment Perspectives Emerge

This options positioning also aligns with the market sentiment throughout 2025. At that time, traders frequently chased high-strike call options in the $100,000 to $140,000 range, reflecting ongoing confidence in Bitcoin’s medium- to long-term trajectory. Now, entering 2026, this confidence is upgrading to a decade-long strategic allocation.

The logic among traders is clear: in the context of a structural depreciation of the dollar over the next ten years, $100,000 is not the end but a new starting point. Bitcoin has already risen about 5% in the first five days of 2026, with current prices oscillating around $89,000 (data update time: January 22, 2026). Once it breaks through the technical resistance at $94,000, the path toward $100,000 will be opened.

A market consensus has formed: as the dollar’s purchasing power continues to be diluted and global liquidity faces restructuring over the decade, Bitcoin’s value as a non-sovereign, scarce asset is being re-evaluated. Traders are voting with real money.