#比特币价格走势 The familiar price level again. $100,000.

Looking at the 49% probability on Polymarket, the options market position data, and traders readjusting their stances, a multitude of similar moments flash through my mind. The frenzy at the end of 2017, the madness in 2021—each accompanied by optimistic expectations and concentrated long bets.

The truly interesting part is the turning point of market sentiment. The sharp decline at year-end led everyone to buy put options for protection. Now, with the put premium significantly softening, what does this indicate? It suggests that the most pessimistic expectations are loosening. This is not a signal of a new high but the end of the panic phase. I have seen this process in several historical cycles.

But the $100,000 threshold is indeed somewhat special. It’s not only a psychological level but also a technical pivot. Rails’ CEO is right—staying above $106,000 on the weekly chart is necessary for a true breakout. I remember that in 2017, it was the same—every time the price touched a key level, it felt like a multiple-choice question: continue upward or pull back to gather strength.

The current situation is traders re-pricing risk. In this context, it often means that a bottom has formed, but a top is far from established. History tells me that the most dangerous phase is chasing highs, and the best approach is to patiently wait for weekly confirmation.

A rebound may come, but don’t be blinded by probability numbers. Percentages are just market noise; the weekly candle’s body is the real truth.