#预测市场 Seeing the Bitcoin prediction data on Polymarket, the probability has risen from 38% to 49% in two days. It reminded me of a recent conversation phenomenon—more and more people are being swept up by market enthusiasm and starting to believe in various predictions.

But there is a point worth reflecting on. Changes in prediction probabilities essentially reflect fluctuations in participant sentiment, not certainty about the future. During the same period, the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $80,000 is also decreasing, indicating that the market is swinging quickly between different scenarios. When numerous predictions converge in one direction, it calls for even greater caution.

I have always believed that a prudent attitude should be like this: understand what the market is predicting, but never let predictions be the main basis for your asset allocation. No matter how tempting the probabilities are, the most important thing is to ask yourself three questions—what proportion of my overall assets does this investment represent? Can I withstand the worst-case scenario? Am I basing this on long-term judgment or short-term hype?

In volatile markets, clear position management and a calm mindset are often more valuable than precise predictions. Instead of chasing various probability numbers, it’s better to carefully assess your risk tolerance and investment cycle. This way, no matter how the market changes, your mindset can remain steady.