#贵金属黄金与白银刷新历史高位 London Gold just reported $4958.37 per ounce, up 3.78% in one go, directly hitting a new all-time high. The domestic Shanghai Gold also followed suit, rising to ¥1104.52 per gram, a 1.53% increase. Calculated from the beginning of the year until now, over three weeks, the increase has already exceeded 11%. The bears have long surrendered, and the bullish pattern is fully established, with industry institutions generally eyeing the $5000 threshold.

Why is the rise so fierce? The reasons are actually layered: geopolitical tensions are chaotic, the VIX index is soaring, and safe-haven funds are flooding into gold. Global central banks are also increasing their holdings, adding an average of 70 tons per month. In plain terms, under the backdrop of de-dollarization, real gold is needed to hedge credit risk. The Federal Reserve's rate cut signals are growing louder, with expectations of 2-3 cuts by 2026, directly lowering the cost of holding gold. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings have reached a two-year high, with continuous capital inflows.

From a technical perspective, the resistance level above is at $4940-$5000. If a correction occurs, recent support levels are at $4850-$4870, with a mid-term bottom at $4750. The daily bullish momentum remains strong, but caution is advised against overextending.

Risks to watch out for include: first, profit-taking; second, a sudden change in the Fed's stance; third, easing geopolitical tensions; and fourth, regulatory interventions.

Trading strategy: in the short term, build long positions in batches around $4850-$4870, with a stop-loss at $4820, targeting $4940-$5000. For medium-term, buy on dips, using $4750 as support, with eyes on the $5200-$5400 range, but keep total positions within 30%.

From a macro perspective, the bullish logic remains intact. The key in the short term is to manage the risk of a correction around the $5000 level, with the core strategy being to buy on dips and take partial profits gradually.