The recent market performance has indeed been a bit strange—US stocks have been rising steadily due to new policy expectations, the VIX index has fallen sharply, and risk sentiment has clearly improved. In theory, risk assets should be leading the charge in such an environment, but gold is also rising, and quite well. Without large-scale liquidity easing, this phenomenon seems somewhat abnormal.

Conversely, BTC's performance is a bit awkward—it neither follows US stocks like a pure risk asset nor benefits from the safe-haven shine like gold. In simple terms, it's caught in the middle.

Why is this happening? The key factor is still the impact of geopolitical uncertainty. The Iran issue has not truly been resolved, and this potential risk makes the market cautious when allocating liquidity. However, from the current situation, both sides seem to hint that they are not eager to enter into a long-term conflict. Whether through a swift resolution or a final compromise, the risk could be initially alleviated by this weekend.

By observing market depth, you'll find that the market cap and trading volume of gold are ten times that of BTC. When liquidity begins to recover, the larger asset pool like gold naturally attracts more capital inflow. BTC needs to wait for the risk to be truly lifted and for the subsequent capital outflows from the gold market to occur.

Enduring the test of this weekend, and once the economic data for early February is released—if there are no major surprises—the market sentiment should shift to a more optimistic outlook. The period from early January to early February is likely the bottom zone.

Let go of short-term noise and look further ahead to 2026—that's the real stage for the crypto industry. Moderate economic slowdown, persistent inflation decline, improved liquidity environment, continued global fiscal expansion, structural shortages in chip manufacturing, and a clear positive trend in industry regulation—these factors combined are what long-term holders should focus on.