Bitcoin prediction market, low likelihood of surpassing $100,000

Source: DigitalToday Original Title: Bitcoin Forecast Market, Low Possibility of Surpassing $100,000 Original Link: https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=623684

The possibility of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 is gradually diminishing. According to prediction market data, the probability that BTC will recover to $100,000 by the first half of 2026 is estimated to be less than 10%.

Citing prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, the chances of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 in the short term are low. As of January 22, 2026, Polymarket estimates a 6% chance that BTC will exceed $100,000 before January 31, and Kalshi estimates a 7% chance.

Bitcoin hit $97,900 on January 14, 2026, but subsequently declined, making it difficult to recover to $100,000. Traders on Kalshi see a 65% chance of surpassing $100,000 before June, while Polymarket assesses a 65% chance that BTC will fall to around $80,000 by mid-2026.

In Kalshi’s betting market, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $70,000 this year is 54%, dropping to $65,000 is 50%, and falling to $60,000 is 42%. The market is increasingly bearish, with some predictions of Bitcoin dropping to $58,000.

Meanwhile, strategists are highly likely to hold Bitcoin in 2026, but the probability of selling before surpassing $100,000 is estimated to be less than 26%. The chance of holding over 80 million BTC until December 31, 2026, is 84%, with additional purchases also anticipated. Recently, strategists added 22.3 million USD worth of 22,305 BTC, increasing their holdings to 700,971.5 BTC.

The Bitcoin market remains highly volatile, but the short-term likelihood of surpassing $100,000 appears low. Data from prediction markets is expected to serve as an important reference for investors.