The risk of a US government shutdown rises to a historic high, and Bitcoin is sold off, dropping to $86,000.

Source: BlockMedia Original Title: The Highest Probability of US Government Shutdown Ever… Market Sentiment Plummets, Bitcoin Drops to the 86K Level Original Link: The likelihood of a US government shutdown is rapidly increasing, triggering a sharp decline in market sentiment. In decentralized prediction markets, the probability of a partial government shutdown occurring within this week is reflected at around 80%, with related concerns intensifying sharply.

According to the prediction market Polymarket data as of January 25, the probability of “Will the US government be in a shutdown before January 31?” answering “Yes” has surged to 80%. This is more than a 50% increase from just one day prior and is the highest level since the market was launched.

Prediction Market Reflects Growing Market Risks

The sharp rise in Polymarket probabilities reflects the perception that US congressional budget negotiations are in deadlock. Investors are increasingly inclined to believe that if short-term political uncertainty cannot be resolved, some functions of the federal government may be interrupted.

Prediction markets differ from traditional financial markets in their ability to reflect investor expectations and psychology in real time, making them a recent reference point for market participants. The sudden increase in the probability of a shutdown, whether it occurs or not, is stimulating short-term risk aversion.

The spread of shutdown fears has become a factor exacerbating the already volatile and shrinking market sentiment. As political uncertainty becomes more prominent in the short term, risk assets are showing signs of increased caution, with some markets even reducing their positions.

Bitcoin was once trading around $88,000, but as selling pressure increased, it broke below the $87,000 support level, with the decline further extending to the initial $86,000 level. Market participants note that what is noteworthy is not the possibility of a shutdown itself, but that this uncertainty is rapidly freezing investment psychology.