Behind the 0.98% rise in BTC: a triangular game of macro pressure, institutional divergence, and undervaluation opportunities

Bitcoin today experienced a mild increase of 0.98%, with a current price of $88,141.64, reflecting surface-level stability. However, behind this gain, the market is undergoing a complex multi-party struggle—macroeconomic liquidity weakening, institutional capital divergence, and technical breakdown risks are intertwined, while the MVRV indicator flickers with bottom signals at low levels. This is not a simple story of rise and fall, but a delicate balance under multiple pressures.

Surface-level stability masks the market reality

According to the latest news, as of press time, BTC is trading at $88,141.64, up 0.98% in 24 hours. But the trading details behind this figure tell a deeper story: the 24-hour high reached $91,100.25, and the low dropped to $86,003.71, with a volatility of $5,096. The trading volume hit $43.504 billion, with a market cap of approximately $1.76 trillion, an increase of $17.082 billion from yesterday.

The seemingly mild increase is actually the result of repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Macro pressures are tightening

External pressures facing the market are more complex than imagined. The US dollar index DXY fell below 97, hitting a four-month low, and expectations of coordinated intervention by the US and Japan to stabilize the yen have heated up, directly causing the dollar to weaken. Meanwhile, the risk of a US government shutdown has surged to about 75-78%, with political deadlock spreading risk aversion sentiment.

These macro shocks directly suppress risk assets. Over the past 24 hours, total network futures liquidations reached $691 million, with Bitcoin accounting for $199 million, making longs the main losers. Market attention is focused on the Fed’s rate decision on January 28, with Powell’s policy statements likely to be the key catalyst for Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

Institutional capital shows clear divergence

More notably, the attitude of institutional investors is changing. According to the latest data, last week, the net weekly purchase of Bitcoin by global listed companies plummeted 86.5% to $290 million. Strategy’s weekly purchase decreased 87.7% to $264 million, with only 2,932 BTC added.

On-chain data shows several large holders gradually reducing their long positions in favor of spot holdings. An insider whale from BTC OG reduced holdings by 427.28 BTC, incurring a loss of $1.612 million, with current long positions showing an unrealized loss of $47.97 million. Although institutional investors see undervaluation opportunities at current price levels, short-term unrealized losses create selling pressure, causing buying momentum to decline significantly.

Technical breakdown risks

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken below the multi-month ascending channel, signaling a significant breakdown. Realized losses have reached $4.5 billion, a three-year high, reflecting a sharp decline in market investors’ risk tolerance.

If BTC continues to fall below $83,522, the cumulative liquidation of longs on major centralized exchanges could reach $1.645 billion, increasing the risk of forced selling. Bitcoin faces the possibility of experiencing its first four consecutive months of decline since 2018, and such extreme scenarios in history often lead to deeper corrections.

But undervaluation signals are also flickering

Interestingly, despite these pressures, valuation indicators are sending different signals. According to Santiment’s analysis, the current MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) of mainstream tokens shows Bitcoin at -3.7%, in an undervalued zone. When the MVRV is negative, it indicates most retail traders are at a loss, presenting an entry opportunity.

The top 100 publicly listed companies holding BTC collectively hold 1,127,981 BTC. In the past 7 days, four companies increased their holdings, indicating that institutions still have an appetite for accumulation at undervalued levels.

Application layer expansion continues

It’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s use cases are quietly expanding. Businesses in Las Vegas, including small juice bars and large chains like Steak 'n Shake, are increasingly accepting Bitcoin payments to avoid credit card fees. This suggests that even amid price volatility, Bitcoin’s acceptance as a payment tool is on the rise.

Summary

Behind Bitcoin’s 0.98% gain lies a delicate balance of multiple forces. Macro pressures are constraining upside potential, institutional capital is diverging for profit, and technical risks warn of breakdowns. However, signals such as undervalued MVRV, continued institutional interest, and expanding use cases suggest the market may be searching for a bottom.

Three key points to watch: First, the Fed’s rate decision on January 28 will be a crucial catalyst; second, whether the support at $83,522 can hold will determine if larger liquidations are triggered; third, the willingness of institutions to accumulate at undervalued levels will influence bottom stability. Short-term volatility will likely continue, but based on valuation and institutional trends, the scope for extreme downside may be limited.