Deutsche Bank is bullish on gold this year, aiming for $6,000, and even targeting the $6,900 mark

Deutsche Bank recently released a bullish outlook on gold. Under the expectation of a weakening dollar, the bank considers reaching $6,000 per ounce as an achievable target, and based on the excess performance over the past two years, the price could even advance toward $6,900 per ounce. This forecast reflects profound changes in the global macro landscape.

The Implications of Two Price Targets

Baseline Target and Excess Expectations

Deutsche Bank’s forecast is divided into two levels. The $6,000 per ounce is a baseline target based on a scenario of a weakening dollar and is considered “achievable” this year. The $6,900 per ounce is a more aggressive expectation, built on referencing the excess performance of gold over the past two years.

The difference of $900 between these two targets indicates the range of possibilities under different scenarios. The baseline target is more conservative, while the excess target requires gold to sustain its strong performance from the past two years.

A Weakening Dollar Is the Core Premise

Deutsche Bank’s entire forecast framework is based on a key assumption: a weakening dollar. This is not a baseless speculation but is supported by underlying logic. According to relevant information, current global geopolitical tensions are intensifying, U.S. policy uncertainties are rising, and these factors are prompting international investors to reassess dollar assets. As mentioned in the reports, some countries have begun to unload U.S. Treasuries, and the market’s foot voting is pushing gold prices higher.

In this context, a weaker dollar is no longer a low-probability event but is gradually becoming a market consensus expectation.

Additional Opportunities in Silver

Deutsche Bank also mentioned silver in its analysis. The bank believes that even if the gold-silver ratio (the price ratio of gold to silver) experiences a correction later, the absolute price of silver could still maintain an upward trend. This means silver could benefit not only from the overall strength of precious metals but also from the optimization of the gold-silver ratio, gaining additional support.

In other words, this is not a zero-sum game. Gold’s rise could drive silver higher, and adjustments in the gold-silver ratio could provide extra upward space for silver.

Validation of the Macro Background

Interestingly, Deutsche Bank’s bullish forecast for gold aligns with other predictions. According to relevant information, Deutsche Bank also forecasts that by the end of 2026, the RMB/USD exchange rate could rise to 6.7, which is consistent with the bullish outlook on gold — both pointing to the pressure on the dollar system and the emerging multi-currency and asset landscape.

This multidimensional forecast consistency enhances the credibility of this judgment. The interaction among gold, the RMB, and the USD is shaping a new financial order.

Variables to Watch

However, the realization of these forecasts depends on several key variables: the direction of U.S. policy, geopolitical developments, and global economic growth expectations. Any unexpected change in these variables could alter the upward trajectory of gold. Short-term fluctuations are normal; the key is to understand the logical framework behind these predictions.

Summary

Deutsche Bank’s gold forecast reflects a bigger picture: the global financial order is undergoing rebalancing, the dollar system faces multiple pressures, and the appeal of precious metals as traditional safe-haven assets is rising. $6,000 is a relatively conservative expectation, while $6,900 represents potential excess gains under specific conditions. The crucial point is that these forecasts are premised on a weakening dollar, and this premise is gradually evolving into reality. Moving forward, attention should be paid to Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical developments, and the actual performance of the dollar index.