Goldman Sachs' 5400 is just the starting point? Can gold break through the 7000 mark by the end of the year?

The international gold price has broken through $5,000 per ounce, and Goldman Sachs still considers there to be significant upside risk to the $5,400 target by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the Royal Bank of Canada is more aggressive, optimistic that gold could surge to $7,100 per ounce. Behind these institutional divergences lies a deep judgment on the dramatic transformation of the global financial landscape.

Divergence Among Institutions Widens, Gold Price Expectations Show Clear Differences

According to the latest news, different investment banks have shown a noticeable divergence in their expectations for gold prices by the end of the year:

While Goldman Sachs maintains the $5,400 expectation, their wording reveals caution: using “upside risk” rather than “downside risk” suggests that the possibility of breaking through the target is officially recognized. This expression implicitly admits to greater potential for price increases.

Multiple Factors Driving Continuous Gold Price Rise

The current surge in gold prices is driven not by a single factor but by the convergence of multiple forces:

Ongoing Central Bank Gold Purchases

Global central banks are increasing their gold holdings on a large scale. Data shows that the total value of gold held by non-U.S. central banks has approached or exceeded $4 trillion, surpassing U.S. Treasuries (about $3.9 trillion) for the first time. Gold has become the largest single reserve asset among global central banks. This structural shift is rewriting the fundamental logic of asset allocation.

Rising Geopolitical Risks

According to related information, geopolitical tensions continue to ferment, leading investors to lose confidence in traditional financial assets, which boosts safe-haven demand and pushes up gold prices. Since the beginning of 2026, gold has risen approximately 15%, with the full-year increase in 2025 reaching nearly 65%.

Worsening U.S. Dollar Credit Concerns

Market rumors suggest that the probability of a U.S. government shutdown has soared to 75%, and fiscal deadlock could trigger a credit crisis. Divisions within the Federal Reserve are intensifying, and policy uncertainty is rising. When sovereign credit shows cracks, funds naturally flow into gold, viewed as the ultimate safe-haven asset.

Clear De-dollarization Trend

Emerging market central banks are actively buying gold, reflecting a reassessment of dollar reserve assets. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, stated at the Davos Forum that the global monetary order is collapsing and recommended buying gold to hedge against a trust crisis. This view is shifting from elite consensus to market action.

Why Does Goldman Sachs Hint That Prices Could Rise Further?

Goldman Sachs’ use of the phrase “significant upside risk” essentially acknowledges two realities:

First, $5,400 may not be the end point. As central banks continue to buy, geopolitical risks persist, and the dollar remains devalued, the probability of gold breaking through $5,400 is quite high.

Second, while the $7,100 target from the Royal Bank of Canada is aggressive, it is not entirely illogical. If the Fed adjusts its policies, the dollar continues to weaken, and safe-haven sentiment intensifies, it is not impossible for gold prices to move in that direction.

Summary

Gold has evolved from a speculative asset into a strategic asset. When global central banks, institutional investors, and safe-haven funds form a collective force, technical analysis alone becomes insufficient. Goldman Sachs maintains a $5,400 target but hints at upside risk, fundamentally acknowledging that under the current global financial landscape, gold’s upward potential may far exceed expectations. Future focus should be on Fed policy developments, geopolitical evolutions, and central bank gold purchase rhythms, as these factors will directly determine whether gold can advance toward $7,000.