The Fed Chair frontrunner once supported Bitcoin. Can Wall Street's new elite rewrite crypto policies?

BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income Chief Rick Rieder has become the top favorite for the Federal Reserve Chairmanship. This seasoned Wall Street veteran has a special identity: a public supporter of crypto assets. As early as 2020, he stated in an interview that Bitcoin would replace gold, and more recently, he explicitly advised investors to hold Bitcoin in their portfolios. With his chances of being selected soaring above 54% on Polymarket, the market is re-pricing a question: the next Fed Chair might be a crypto-friendly Wall Street pragmatist.

Rieder’s Crypto-Friendly Past

Rick Rieder is not a last-minute supporter. He has held a positive view of Bitcoin for many years.

As early as 2020, when digital assets were still in their infancy, Rieder told CNBC that Bitcoin would replace gold as a store of value, with a straightforward reason: “because it’s much easier to transfer than a gold bar.” This is not rhetoric but the actual thinking of a CIO managing over $7 trillion in bonds—he understands the value of liquidity, transferability, and asset convenience.

In recent interviews, he further clarified his stance. Rieder said Bitcoin should be part of a smart portfolio and compared it to gold, calling both “assets that can provide some stability to a portfolio.” At that time, Bitcoin was still above $112,000, and he predicted “it will continue to rise.”

The key point of these comments is that they come from a decision-maker at one of the world’s largest asset management firms, not a crypto evangelist. BlackRock manages enormous funds for institutional investors worldwide, and Rieder’s attitude reflects a pragmatic recognition of Bitcoin by traditional financial elites.

From 4% to 54% Probability Jump

Rieder becoming a top candidate for Fed Chair is a recent development.

According to Polymarket data, his probability of being selected has surged from 4% at the beginning of the year to over 54%, currently stable between 54-58%. This shift was triggered by a clear event: Trump met with Rieder during the Davos forum, publicly called him “very impressive,” and said he had completed all final interviews with candidates.

In Trump’s context, this is already a strong signal of preference. The market quickly priced this in, with Rieder’s odds surpassing the previous frontrunner Kevin Warsh (around 31%).

Why His Policy Stance Attracts Trump

Rieder’s rapid rise is not just due to Trump’s statements but also because his policy views align closely with the current political environment.

First, he has long questioned the effectiveness of high interest rates. Rieder believes that in a service-driven economy, high rates may not contain inflation and could instead increase fiscal costs and borrowing difficulties. This aligns perfectly with Trump’s call for rate cuts—Trump has long been dissatisfied with the Fed’s high interest rate policies.

Second, he favors a faster, earlier rate cut path. In recent interviews, Rieder openly said “inflation is yesterday’s problem” and argued that the Fed should shift focus to the labor market and employment. This view has gained support in the current economic environment—since late 2023, US inflation data has indeed been receding.

Third, his background itself signals market friendliness. As a frontline trader turned CIO, Rieder’s understanding of liquidity, risk control, and market psychology is more intuitive than that of academic economists. This suggests that if he leads the Fed, policies might focus more on market stability and predictability rather than textbook economic models.

Potential Impact on the Crypto Market

What does Rieder’s possible appointment mean for crypto assets?

Policy Environment Shift

A Fed inclined toward earlier rate cuts and focusing on liquidity essentially creates a more risk-friendly environment. Bitcoin and other crypto assets, being highly sensitive to dollar liquidity, will benefit directly from expectations of easing.

Currently, Bitcoin is around $88,000, having recently pulled back due to tariff concerns and geopolitical tensions (down 0.72% in 24 hours, down 2.56% over 7 days). But if Rieder is indeed selected, the reinforced expectation of rate cuts could provide new upward momentum for Bitcoin.

Institutional Capital Flow Signals

More importantly, the expectation of Rieder’s appointment is already influencing institutional flows. On-chain data shows that whales holding over 1,000 BTC have recently accumulated about 104,340 Bitcoin, increasing their holdings by 1.5%. This level of accumulation speed is rare over the past year, indicating long-term investors are preparing for a policy shift.

Large daily transfers over $1 million have also returned to near two-month highs, often signaling frequent movements by institutional investors and OTC desks. All these point to a common signal: the market is betting with real money that Rieder’s appointment will bring liquidity improvements.

Potential Opening of Crypto Policy Ecosystem

BlackRock itself is actively pushing for innovative products like Bitcoin ETFs. If Rieder takes the helm at the Fed, this crypto-savvy executive could pave the way for a more open crypto policy environment, including attitudes toward stablecoins, on-chain assets, and RWA (real-world asset tokenization).

This is not a radical promise but a pragmatic inference—someone who understands crypto value and also has tools to influence Fed policy is unlikely to impose unnecessary barriers to financial innovation.

What the Market Is Pricing

Currently, the market is pricing in an “optimal scenario”: Trump selecting a candidate who can satisfy his rate-cutting agenda, gain Wall Street approval, and be crypto-friendly.

How likely is this “optimal scenario”? Based on Polymarket data, market participants consider it quite high. But the final decision still rests with Trump, with a projected nomination around next week.

Summary

Rick Rieder’s status as a top candidate for Fed Chair signals an important policy shift. This BlackRock executive not only has a clear pro-crypto stance but also represents a new approach to Fed decision-making: more focus on liquidity, earlier rate cuts, and greater emphasis on market stability.

If he is ultimately chosen, it could mark a fundamental change in Fed policy direction. For the crypto market, this might mean a more friendly macro liquidity environment and signals of policy openness from the highest levels. The recent whale accumulation and active institutional flows are already pricing in this expectation.

Next week, Trump’s final decision will be a key catalyst for the market. Regardless of the outcome, this change in Fed Chair prospects reflects an accelerating convergence between Wall Street and the crypto market.