75% shutdown probability looming! Can Bitcoin withstand a new round of "liquidity winter"?

Polymarket data shows that the probability of a government shutdown in the US before January 31 has surged to 75%-78%, with bets exceeding $13.3 million. This follows the record-breaking 43-day full shutdown in October 2025, as Washington once again faces a fiscal deadlock.

But unlike last year, this time it may be a "partial shutdown"—6 out of 12 spending bills have been signed into law. However, the market does not seem to relax its vigilance: Bitcoin has fallen from a high of $97,000 to around $86,000 over the past week, and spot ETF net outflows reached $1.22 billion in a single week, the largest withdrawal in two months.

How will this political standoff impact the crypto markets? Can Bitcoin's "safe haven" narrative withstand a new liquidity test?

Shutdown Crisis Escalates: "Smart Money" Bets from Polymarket

According to the latest data from the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of a US government shutdown before January 31 has reached 75%-78%, with total bets surpassing $13.3 million. The surge in this probability stems from sharp disagreements between Senate Democrats and Republicans over DHS funding bills.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer explicitly stated: "Unless ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) is constrained and thoroughly reformed, I will vote against it." If no agreement is reached by midnight on January 30, some federal agencies will cease operations.

Notably, this is the second shutdown crisis in nearly half a year. From October 1 to November 2025, the US experienced a record 43-day full government shutdown—its 11th in modern history and the longest ever. During that deadlock, about 900,000 federal employees were furloughed, 2 million worked unpaid, with economic losses estimated between $7 billion and $14 billion, and Q4 GDP growth was cut by up to 2 percentage points.

Partial Shutdown ≠ Low Risk: The "Invisible Killer" of Liquidity Tightening

Although this is a "partial shutdown" rather than a full closure, the market impact may not be negligible.

The key difference lies in the liquidity drain from the Treasury General Account (TGA). During the full shutdown in October, TGA balances swelled to over $850 billion, leading to approximately $700 billion in market liquidity being withdrawn. BitMEX analysts describe this as a "capital shortage risk asset," with Bitcoin experiencing intense volatility during that period.

This time, although 6 spending bills have been signed into law, with the Departments of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Commerce, and Energy fully funded for the fiscal year, the deadlock at DHS could still trigger significant liquidity tightening. Notably, DHS holds about $178 billion from the "Big Beautiful Bill" passed last year, enabling the agency to operate with minimal interruption.

However, market analyst "CryptoOracle"—who accurately predicted market turmoil days before the October shutdown—warns: "A shutdown first destroys liquidity, then it recovers. Expect Bitcoin to correct by 30-40%, followed by the best rebound in a decade." His target price was $65,000 to $75,000, calling it the "fear zone."

Bitcoin's "Stress Test": ETF Capital Exodus

The shutdown panic is already reflected in institutional fund flows.

As of the week ending January 23, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1.22 billion, the largest in two months. Specifically:

• January 20: net outflow of $479.7 million

• January 21: net outflow of $708.7 million (recent high)

• January 22: net outflow of $32 million

• January 23: net outflow of $103.5 million

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) led the outflows, with $101.49 million and $44.56 million respectively on January 27 alone. This "mass exodus" reflects risk aversion among institutional investors amid macro uncertainty.

Glassnode data shows that the average cost basis for ETF investors is currently $84,099, a level that has repeatedly served as a key support zone. However, as prices approach this line, panic sentiment is spreading.

Will History Repeat? Bitcoin Performance During Past Shutdowns

Historically, government shutdowns have not had a one-way impact on Bitcoin.

During the 2018-2019 shutdown, Bitcoin initially followed US stocks downward but later gained support from a weakening dollar, showing a "dip then rally" pattern.

In October 2025, Bitcoin experienced wide-ranging fluctuations during the shutdown, with regulatory optimism and macro uncertainty interacting. The liquidity drain from TGA put risk assets under pressure, but after the shutdown ended and liquidity was re-injected, Bitcoin rebounded quickly.

Key Data Point: Bitcoin and USD Liquidity (measured by USDLiq index) have a correlation of 0.85, the highest among all asset classes. This indicates Bitcoin's price increasingly correlates with the overall monetary environment, and liquidity tightening caused by government shutdowns will directly impact its price.

Presto Research analyst Rick Maeda notes that the recent drop to $86,000 was mainly triggered by Washington's political deadlock and federal budget uncertainty.

Gold Hits New Highs, Bitcoin "Out of Favor"?

A warning sign is that funds are flowing from Bitcoin into gold.

Amid escalating shutdown threats, gold prices surged past $5,000/oz, hitting a record high. In contrast, Bitcoin's gains since 2026 are less than 1%, significantly underperforming precious metals. Year-to-date, spot gold has soared nearly 18%, silver surged 54%, while Bitcoin remains in the $88,000-$90,000 range.

Matrixport reports: "Central banks (especially the People's Bank of China) continue to increase gold holdings, which not only pushes up gold prices but may also lead to capital flowing out of Bitcoin."

This "abandoning Bitcoin for gold" phenomenon indicates that, in extreme uncertainty, traditional safe-haven assets still dominate. Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative has not yet been fully established, and institutional funds prefer proven precious metals.

Temporary Agreements Still Possible: 60% Historical Success Rate

Despite high shutdown probabilities, history shows crises often resolve at the last minute.

According to data from analyst SGX on X platform, out of five shutdown crises from 2013 to 2023, only three ended with temporary agreements—about 60%. Possible solutions include:

1. Republicans splitting DHS funding into separate bills to pass remaining legislation with a 60-vote threshold;

2. Some Democrats privately compromising after border provisions are softened;

3. Economic pressure—one week of shutdown could cost $4-6 billion, with markets falling 2-3%, an political liability both sides want to avoid.

SGX states: "Historical patterns + economic pressure + both sides' exit plans = likely agreement on DHS before January 31. But this is theater, not guaranteed."

Investor Strategies: Finding Certainty in Uncertainty

How should investors respond to potential shutdown shocks?

Short-term risk management:

• Reduce leverage, avoid high-multiplier contracts

• Increase stablecoin holdings, maintain liquidity

• Watch key support levels: $87,000-$87,500 is a critical line

Medium to long-term positioning:

• If shutdown causes Bitcoin to dip into the "fear zone" ($65,000-$75,000), it could be a good entry point

• Monitor liquidity rebound after shutdown ends—history shows TGA re-injections often boost risk assets

• Keep a close eye on ETF fund flows; shifts in institutional sentiment often signal market turning points

Policy Watchpoints:

• SEC and CFTC regulatory activities pause during shutdown, potentially delaying crypto ETF approvals

• Delays in key economic data (non-farm payrolls, CPI, PCE) will amplify market volatility

• After shutdown ends, suppressed regulatory policies may be rapidly released

Conclusion: Bitcoin's Coming of Age

The US government shutdown crisis is becoming another "stress test" for Bitcoin. Unlike the "independent rally" of 2020-2021, today's Bitcoin is deeply embedded in the global macro-financial system, with its price highly correlated with USD liquidity, institutional flows, and policy uncertainty.

This crisis reveals a harsh reality: Bitcoin has not fully shed its "risk asset" label. Under extreme macro shocks, its "safe haven" attributes remain fragile. However, for long-term investors, each crisis is an opportunity to test asset resilience.

If Bitcoin can hold key support levels during this shutdown shock and rebound swiftly as liquidity recovers, it will strongly validate its "digital gold" narrative. Conversely, a deep correction could undermine institutional confidence in its long-term allocation.

A 75% shutdown probability signals risk but also opportunity. In Washington's political game, the biggest winners are often those who stay calm in the "fear zone" and think long-term.

Do you think Bitcoin can withstand this shutdown shock? If it drops to $65,000, will you buy the dip or wait and see? Share your thoughts in the comments! If you found this article helpful for your investment decisions, please like, share with friends concerned about macro risks, and don't forget to follow for the latest market insights! #金价突破5200美元 $BTC