Jurrien Timmer's Bitcoin Cycle Analysis: Why the Bear Market Could Extend Through 2026

According to Fidelity’s Global Head of Macro Research, the crypto market’s established four-year cycle pattern shows no signs of breaking down. The analyst suggests that recent market movements remain consistent with historical precedent, indicating a prolonged correction phase ahead.

The Four-Year Cycle Continues

When comparing historical bull market patterns, Jurrien Timmer identifies a compelling timeline: after 145 weeks of consecutive gains, the October peak at $125,000 aligned perfectly with projected cycle expectations. This validation of the pattern suggests the current market dynamics are tracking exactly as the long-term model predicts. Rather than signaling cycle exhaustion, current price action appears to reinforce the established temporal framework that has governed Bitcoin’s market behavior across multiple four-year periods.

Price Projections and Support Levels

Jurrien Timmer’s analysis points to an extended correction phase that should persist through 2026, with stabilization expected in a specific price corridor. The analyst identifies floor levels between $65,000 and $75,000 as key support zones where the market could find temporary equilibrium during this extended adjustment period. These price targets represent neither capitulation levels nor recovery zones, but rather transitional consolidation areas within the broader cycle framework.

Where Bitcoin Stands Today

As of late January 2026, Bitcoin trades around $90,050, positioning itself comfortably above the projected support corridor. This current valuation suggests the market is still in an early-to-mid correction phase, with considerable room before reaching the identified floor prices. The ongoing performance remains consistent with Jurrien Timmer’s thesis that 2026 will be characterized by gradual adjustment rather than sharp deterioration, supporting the view that the four-year cycle remains on track.