Bitcoin Remains Under Pressure Below Psychological Level as Gold and Silver Reach Historic Peaks

The global market is experiencing a significant capital rotation from risk assets to safe-haven instruments. Bitcoin, relied upon as a modern hedge, is surprisingly underperforming investor expectations with its price dropping to $83,150 per coin, reflecting a 1.98% decrease in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, gold and silver continue to climb toward all-time highs, creating a sharp divergence and reigniting the longstanding debate about whether emerging risks like quantum computing are beginning to influence market behavior.

Global Capitalization Shifts to Safe Assets: Why Gold Outperforms Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s declining performance starkly contrasts with the spectacular rally experienced by precious metals. Since Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024, asset performance data shows a clear pattern: global investors are choosing to exit high-risk exposures.

Relevant performance comparisons since November 2024 reveal the scale of market transformation:

• Bitcoin: −2.6%
• Silver: +205%
• Gold: +83%
• Nasdaq: +24%
• S&P 500: +17.6%

Gold reached an all-time high around $4,930 per troy ounce, while silver surged toward $96 per ounce. This momentum is driven by central bank gold accumulation, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and deep concerns about fiscal health in developed countries. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, even projects that gold could reach $12,000 to $23,000 per ounce over the next 3-8 years.

Edwards’ projections are based on three fundamental pillars: record-breaking central bank gold accumulation, expansion of fiat money supply exceeding 10% annually, and declining confidence in global government debt markets. With the monthly RSI of gold reaching levels unseen since the 1970s, this momentum is fueled by deep structural demand, not just short-term speculation.

Market Structure and Supply Cycle: Main Trigger for Bitcoin Downward Pressure Not Quantum

The consolidation of Bitcoin below the resistance zone of $90,000–$93,500 has sparked wild speculation about its causes. Some voices suggest that fears of quantum computing are beginning to influence investor decisions, with analysts like Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures stating that “Bitcoin’s poor performance is caused by quantum” and claiming that “the market is speaking — developers are not listening.”

However, on-chain researchers and industry veterans dismiss this interpretation as a misreading of the current market dynamics. Analyst @Checkmatey notes that Bitcoin faces “heavy HODLer side selling in 2025” — long-term investors who have accumulated Bitcoin over the years are now releasing their positions as Bitcoin approaches the psychological level of $100,000.

Bitcoin investor Vijay Boyapati reinforces this analysis with a more straightforward explanation: “The real explanation is the large supply opening once we hit the psychological level for whales — $100,000.” On-chain data confirms that distribution from long-term holders has increased significantly. This supply absorbs demand from spot ETFs and new institutional buyers, limiting upside momentum and creating persistent price pressure.

This market structure is not a mysterious phenomenon — it is a normal response to the historical supply cycle that develops as Bitcoin approaches psychological round price zones.

Quantum Threats Remain Theoretically Long-Term, Say Developers

While fears of quantum computing resonate in some market segments, the Bitcoin developer community maintains a more measured perspective. Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, has repeatedly emphasized that even in the worst-case scenario, quantum computing will not cause immediate losses across the network.

The reason for this optimism lies in a realistic timeline: quantum machines capable of running Shor’s algorithm — which could theoretically break elliptic curve cryptography — are still far from practical deployment. Even the most aggressive estimates project decades or more before this threat becomes credible.

Recognition of this long-term risk is reflected in Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-360, which outlines a migration path toward quantum-resistant address formats. This system allows for gradual upgrades that can begin well before a credible threat emerges. Developers stress that such transitions would take years, not months or a few market cycles — making quantum an unlikely explanation for the short-term price weaknesses currently occurring.

Some voices in traditional finance, like Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood, have removed Bitcoin from their model portfolios citing long-term quantum risks. However, even these skeptics acknowledge that the challenge is not whether Bitcoin can adapt — but how long such an adaptation process would take if truly necessary. That timeline is measured in decades, not quarters or years.

Bitcoin Remains Under Strong Macro Factors

For now, market participants acknowledge that Bitcoin remains trapped in an environment driven by strong macro forces: rising global bond yields, trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, sovereign capital rotation into gold, and a general preference for capital preservation over speculative growth.

Bitcoin must hold support between $85,000 and $88,000 while attempting to reclaim the resistance zone of $91,000–$93,500 to restore lost bullish momentum. Until monetary or geopolitical clarity improves — or long-term HODLer selling subsides — Bitcoin is likely to continue reacting to global headlines rather than leading with its own independent narrative.

Meanwhile, gold continues to benefit from a historic shift in global capital flows, with long-term bullish projections remaining intact as this cycle of uncertainty persists.