Today, it dropped to 75,700 and then rebounded. As for how low this round of correction will go, instead of rushing to draw support levels on the chart or guessing points by watching the order book, it's better to first understand what truly constitutes the bottom. Every bottoming process is backed by two core conditions. First, liquidity must no longer be continuously shrinking. As long as the global monetary environment is still tightening the faucet, risk assets won't have a real safety cushion. Only when the rate hike cycle reaches its end and discussions about shifting policy begin will the market have room to breathe. Otherwise, no matter how grand the narrative, macro pressures will layer down relentlessly. Second, leverage must be cleaned up completely. The essence of a bear market isn't just falling prices, but the complete removal of leveraged positions. Only when those betting on rebounds with borrowed money are all forced out will the market truly lighten up. If during this period, shocks like platform collapses or policy surprises occur, then we must wait for panic to fully subside. Besides that, a very typical signal will appear: extreme boredom. During the true bottom phase, the market often lacks drama. Prices stop plunging but no one is willing to chase the rally. On-chain activity declines, discussion heat dissipates, and trading volume continues to shrink. Why? Because those needing to cash out for emergency funds have already sold. The remaining are either long-term holders or those who have long given up watching the market. After aggressive funds are cleared out, the market enters a state of “no one cares” equilibrium. The pessimists have uninstalled their apps. The optimists have no bullets left to add. The market gradually quiets down. This silence is more like a bottom than a crash. As for how a new round of rally starts, the answer is simple—incremental funds. When outsiders begin to change their outlook and bring in new cash, buying naturally increases. As long as marginal capital flows in, it can leverage a market that is already very light. Usually, the sell-off caused by liquidity crises will push prices below miners’ cost lines. At such times, panic often reaches its limit. But the problem is, the true bottom is often a needle-insertion moment, completed in an instant. It's extremely difficult to precisely catch that move. You may have tried to buy many times at what you call the “iron bottom,” but the real turning point only happens once. And even if it does reach a low, it won't immediately take off. More often, it grinds sideways, oscillates repeatedly, and no one pays attention. Instead of betting on that lowest needle, it's better to wait for confirmation on the right side of the trend, for fundamentals to stabilize, and for hash rate to rebound before participating more safely. If it's not for stimulation, there's no need to obsess over the absolute lowest price. The position of extreme pessimism itself already has value.

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