Although the reasons for this week's decline triggered by gold and silver are varied, they mainly boil down to the following points: 1. Tensions in Iran 2. Partial US government shutdown 3. Nomination of Waller to succeed as Federal Reserve Chair, known for hawkish balance sheet reduction 4. Rapid recent gains leading to a sell-off, but each of these points still has potential turning points: 1. Once Iran clears out internal spies, it will be harder for the US to act. The subsequent developments could either be intensified internal conflicts within Iran, giving the US an opportunity, or escalating internal conflicts within the US, requiring distraction through political maneuvers. Otherwise, no actual conflict will occur, and even if it does, it will likely be limited to bombings; ground troops are unlikely to be deployed. So, focus on war-related themes—if a conflict happens, gold will likely rise. However, the bigger impact is actually on oil prices. 2. The US government could resume operations as early as next week, but a larger shutdown might occur in mid-February. This depends on the struggle and compromise between the two parties. One concern is that Trump’s health has been criticized by various parties. If he cannot stay healthy until the end of his term, his close associates might preemptively secure their positions, which is not conducive to consolidating power within the party to counter the Democrats. 3. Although Waller was hawkish before, he has recently become more dovish in order to secure the Federal Reserve Chair position. He is from the same school as Bostick, both students of Drukenmiller. Their cooperation aims to complete a difficult US debt swap. Since Bostick supports familiar colleagues, it’s better than appointing a stranger. Therefore, we shouldn’t be too pessimistic about the monetary policy after the Fed Chair change; future fiscal and monetary policies will likely coordinate comprehensively. 4. Currently, gold and silver are actually healthy corrections; the fundamentals are intact. It’s a mid-air refueling rally pattern. Although silver’s movement resembles a CX pattern with a bulldozer headcut, it’s not a clone. After recovery, it can continue to rise. The recent dip is a good opportunity to buy or add positions. The only real concern is the crypto market—hard to judge. It’s better to focus on US stocks and precious metals first, and wait for clearer crypto market signals before entering.