$BTC

According to the Bitcoin Power Law model, which describes Bitcoin's growth over time, the current Bitcoin price is much lower than its fair value.

- Summary:
- Current fair value: approximately $122,000
- Current price: about $79,000
- Deviation: minus 35.5% — meaning Bitcoin is in a historically "oversold" region.
The model uses an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process (OU) to measure deviations and mean reversion (mean reversion). Historically, when the price reaches this level of deviation from fair value, a "strong rebound" (Snap-back) occurs.
- Half-life of correction: 133 days (Half correction occurs in 4.4 months, nearly complete in 9 months).

- Statistical forecasts:
- June 2026: around $113,000
- October 2026: around $145,000
- January 2027: around $162,000
Thus, the expected annual return is approximately +105% over 12 months, based on historical data where the success rate (price reversion) has been 100% in similar cases since 2010.
- Main reason: the market is now at the maximum negative deviation (left tail of the statistical distribution).
The model explains 55% of future price movement (strong correlation in highly volatile assets).
From a mathematical perspective, the market is "offering a significant discount," and the opportunity has a high expected value.