Monetary Policy Shifts May Trigger Next Crypto Bull Run: A 2026 Outlook

The trajectory of cryptocurrency markets has historically followed a predictable pattern tied to regulatory changes and macroeconomic shifts rather than technical event cycles. Macro researcher Jesse Eckel argues that a meaningful crypto bull run is increasingly likely as central banks pivot away from restrictive policies and toward financial easing. The convergence of loosening monetary conditions and expanding liquidity creates a compelling environment for risk assets to flourish.

Why Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Lost Its Market-Moving Power

The assumption that Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle automatically triggers market rallies has proven increasingly unreliable. Eckel’s research reveals that previous perceived correlations between halving events and bull markets were actually driven by broader liquidity conditions rather than the supply mechanics of the halving itself.

“Halvings alone never caused rallies. Liquidity did,” Eckel stated in his latest analysis. He points to the 2013, 2017, and 2021 market surges as evidence—each occurred during periods of aggressive monetary expansion by central banks. When the Federal Reserve and its global counterparts implemented the fastest rate-hiking cycle in decades during 2022, cryptocurrency assets faced severe headwinds regardless of any technical developments.

The 2024 Bitcoin halving serves as a case study. Without accompanying macroeconomic support, the halving alone failed to ignite an immediate rally. This validates Eckel’s thesis that internal crypto events now play a secondary role compared to the broader financial environment. Investors seeking timing signals should monitor central bank balance sheets and interest rate policies rather than cryptocurrency-specific event calendars.

Central Bank Easing: The Real Engine Behind Crypto Bull Runs

A significant shift is unfolding across global monetary policy. After years of tightening, central banks have paused interest-rate increases and begun signaling support for economic growth. “Rate hikes are done. The pressure phase is ending,” Eckel observed.

This policy reversal carries profound implications for risk asset valuations. When borrowing costs decline and money supply expands, capital that has been sitting on the sidelines during uncertain periods begins flowing back into higher-yield investments—including cryptocurrencies. Business activity, while still modest in many regions, is showing signs of stabilization rather than contraction.

Eckel suggests that this environment is particularly supportive for altcoins, which tend to outperform during periods of broad market optimism and abundant liquidity. Historical precedent supports this view: every major bull market in crypto’s history has followed periods when central banks deployed accommodative monetary policies and expanded their balance sheets substantially. Given that similar conditions are now reemerging, the foundation for the next major crypto bull run is being laid.

Liquidity Expansion Could Fuel Significant Market Growth

As financial conditions ease, the mechanics of capital flow favor risk assets. Central banks face mounting pressure to support economies experiencing sluggish growth, creating an incentive structure that favors monetary accommodation. In such environments, investors reallocate capital from safe havens toward more volatile but potentially rewarding asset classes.

Eckel notes that liquidity metrics are beginning to show early signs of expansion—a pattern historically correlated with strong cryptocurrency performance. The shift from monetary tightening to monetary easing typically precedes risk asset rallies by several quarters, suggesting that 2026 positioning aligns well with favorable market conditions.

Current Market Phase Represents Accumulation, Not Climax

The crypto market’s current state should be understood as early-stage recovery rather than the explosive phase of a bull market. Eckel emphasizes patience and systematic observation rather than jumping to conclusions. “2025 may see some lift, but 2026 looks more explosive,” he suggested when discussing the likely timeline.

Weak global business activity has restrained enthusiasm for volatile assets among many investors. Only as economic data strengthens and monetary policy demonstrably shifts toward expansion will broader participation accelerate. The groundwork is forming, but the conditions for explosive upside have not yet fully aligned.

Eckel’s core message challenges conventional thinking: crypto bull run momentum follows monetary flows rather than predetermined event calendars. By monitoring liquidity expansion, central bank actions, and macroeconomic data trajectories, investors gain more reliable signals than by watching technical cryptocurrency cycles. As the transition from contractionary to expansionary policy deepens throughout 2026, the stage for sustained appreciation becomes increasingly probable.