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Yesterday, gold prices rebounded by $250. Do you think you've successfully bottomed out? Hold on, everyone, listen to Cheshire's analysis.
First of all, don't get too excited too early. The past two days, gold prices dropped from $5600 to $4400, a total decline of $1200 in just two days, a drop of over 20%. The market was in chaos, but the world's largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) holdings remained unchanged at 1087.1 tons. Then, when it rebounded to $5000, the market was filled with cheers, thinking the big V Tianlong had arrived. But what about SPDR's holdings? Not only did they not increase, but they also reduced their holdings by 3.72 tons. Cheshire wants to ask everyone, when there's a 20% plunge, institutions stay still; during the rebound, they actually reduce their positions. What do you think is going on?
First, yesterday's rebound is not a restart of the bull market but a technical correction during deleveraging, indicating that gold needs continuous oscillation and correction. But this doesn't mean the end of the bull market; it's just a mid-game break.
The slight change in SPDR holdings indicates what? They are waiting. Waiting for deleveraging to end, waiting for panic to subside, waiting for the price to reach a suitable range.
Moreover, in January, institutions also increased their gold holdings. They are gradually positioning, not blindly accumulating. Such a strategy ensures the market won't rise rapidly, and on the day of the crash, global funds flowed in during the panic. Who was buying during the panic? Undoubtedly, institutions were taking the opportunity. Retail investors were cutting losses, while institutions were scooping up chips.
You might be asking: Since institutions are taking the buy-in, why hasn't gold prices surged significantly? Good question. It's because there aren't enough buyers yet; sellers are too frantic.
Now you should understand how to approach the gold situation. Cheshire still says, never give up in the darkness before dawn. Keep going, everyone.