1. Why does the market keep rising despite continuous bearish signals (Market Maker Thinking)

1. Negative news is actually positive (short-term)
Hawkish Federal Reserve, ETF net outflows, V神 selling, regulatory negative news concentrated release, short-term selling pressure exhausted, selling volume dries up, slight buying pushes the market higher.
2. Technical analysis: Oversold rebound
RSI, MACD bottom divergence, 1470 is a strong short-term support, triggering technical buy signals.
3. Futures market: Long and short traps
Market makers use high leverage to first push short positions to the limit, then smash long positions, harvesting both sides.
4. The truth about low volume: No new funds entering
The rise relies on existing funds + liquidation of positions, without continuous institutional inflow, the rebound is unsustainable.
2. Current judgment: Suspected to be a trap for chasing longs, beware of a big dump
- Resistance level: 2080-2100 is a strong resistance; if it cannot break through, it’s a trap top for chasing longs.
- Support level: 1800-1850, if broken, look at 1700-1740.
- Trading suggestions
- Do not chase longs; focus on shorting from 2050-2100 range.
- Only hold small long positions below 1800, with strict stop-loss.
- No-volume rebounds are not worth fighting; enter and exit quickly.
3. Future trend projection (Warning from the leverage master)
- If 2080 cannot hold + volume continues to shrink: Likely a trap for chasing longs
A large C-wave decline with a big dump, target 1500-1600 or even lower.
- If volume breaks through 2100+ with capital inflow: a reversal might occur, but the probability is very low at the moment.