The quantum risk of Bitcoin is manageable, and market concerns are exaggerated #当前行情抄底还是观望？

On February 8, CoinShares issued a statement indicating that the possibility of practical quantum computers emerging in the future is not zero, sparking intense debate about the potential impact on Bitcoin security. The quantum vulnerabilities of Bitcoin are not an imminent crisis but a foreseeable engineering issue, and there is ample time for adjustments.

From a technical perspective, the so-called quantum risk mainly stems from Shor's algorithm potentially cracking ECDSA or Schnorr signatures, thereby exposing private keys; Grover's algorithm could theoretically weaken the security strength of SHA-256. The primary affected are approximately 1.7 million BTC that use P2PK addresses early on, accounting for about 8% of the total supply. Therefore, the likelihood of causing systemic market shocks in the short term is limited. The common market claim that "about 25% of the supply faces risk" is considered significantly exaggerated, with a considerable portion of the risk mitigable through address migration and other methods.

Long-term attacks may be theoretically feasible within the next decade, but short-term attacks, such as cracking private keys within 10 minutes in the mempool, remain practically impossible for the foreseeable future, even over the next several decades. The scale of private key leakage that could enter the market is roughly around 10,000 BTC, which, even if it occurs, would have limited impact on the price system. Holders can proactively migrate to more secure address structures. The remaining potential targets are scattered across approximately 34,000 addresses, each averaging about 50 BTC. Even under highly optimistic assumptions of breakthroughs in quantum technology, executing a comprehensive attack could still take decades.