The battle between bulls and bears at the $70,000 mark, my judgment: a rebound rather than a reversal.

Most likely entering a “high volatility oscillation period” around $70,000. In the short term, be cautious of retest risks; the medium-term trend depends on when the Federal Reserve’s rate cut will materialize.

In the past few days, Bitcoin quickly rebounded from the $60,000 cyclical bottom to reach this year’s high of $70,000. This surge directly caused over 90,000 liquidations across the network, totaling nearly $200 million. Standing at this critical point, market sentiment is extremely complex.

This rebound is not driven by major breakthroughs in Bitcoin’s fundamentals but by a concentrated release of macro sentiment. The US January CPI data came in below expectations, prompting traders to once again bet on rate cuts, with some even estimating a 50% chance of three rate cuts by the end of the year. The expectation of eased liquidity has given a strong boost to risk assets that have been under pressure.

From a technical perspective, the position is very “awkward.” On the candlestick chart, although the price has rebounded strongly, on the daily chart it remains in a bearish structure, with prices suppressed below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Upward, $71,000 is the first tough barrier, while $72,500 is the “watershed” that will determine whether the medium-term trend can be reversed; downward, $65,800 is the short-term lifeline. If broken, it could test the strong support at $60,000 again.

Although the price looks good, the underlying market sentiment has diverged. The Bitcoin basis has returned to a neutral zone, indicating that demand for long positions via derivatives is weakening, and the market is no longer as frantic as before.

More importantly, US Treasury Secretary Yellen explicitly poured cold water: the US government will not bail out cryptocurrencies and has no authority to buy Bitcoin. This essentially shatters the previous market fantasy of a “national-level buy-in.”

What’s next? I see two possibilities:

1. Short-term (next week): Consolidation and oscillation between $68,000 and $71,000. Major players need to clear out short-term positions at this level while waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals.
2. Medium-term (remaining time this month): There is a significant risk of a pullback. Some prediction platforms show an 82% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $55,000 this year. If support at $65,000 is broken, this rebound is likely just a “bull trap.”

Trading advice: In this kind of market, chasing highs is a big mistake. Strictly control your positions; low buy and high sell is the way to survive.