Corn Prices Come Under Pressure as Export Activity Softens

The corn market is experiencing downward momentum, with futures contracts declining 2 to 3 1/4 cents at midday trading. Spot prices have slipped further, with the CmdtyView national average for cash corn falling 2 3/4 cents to $3.91 1/2 per bushel. The broader commodity complex shows weakness, as crude oil dropped $3.48 per barrel while the US dollar index gained $0.586, factors typically weighing on agricultural export demand.

Export Shipments Fall Short of Historical Norms

Recent export inspection data reveals a notable slowdown in corn movement. The week’s export inspments totaled 1.136 MMT (44.74 million bushels), representing a 9.88% decline from the previous week and a concerning 26.55% shortfall compared to the same period last year. This weakness suggests demand pressures are mounting for US corn supplies.

Japan emerged as the largest buyer, importing 444,439 MT of corn during the period, while Mexico received 260,227 MT and Colombia took 147,478 MT. Despite the weekly dip, the marketing year-to-date export tally stands at 32.611 MMT (1.284 billion bushels) since September, maintaining a 49.86% advantage over the previous year’s pace through this same timeframe.

Policy Developments May Alter Demand Landscape

A significant development emerged when President Trump announced successful negotiations with India’s President Modi, resulting in US tariff reductions on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. More notably, India committed to purchasing over $500 billion in US energy, technology, agricultural products, coal, and other goods. Given India’s historical position as a top buyer of US ethanol, this trade agreement could provide meaningful support to the corn complex through downstream demand for processed products.

Market Participants Adjust Positioning

Commodity Futures Trading Commission data through January 27 shows managed money speculators trimmed their net short position in corn futures and options by 9,274 contracts, primarily through new long purchases. The speculative net short stands at 72,050 contracts. Meanwhile, commercial traders reduced long holdings, with their net short position expanding 17,381 contracts to 187,342 contracts, suggesting professional hedgers maintain cautious sentiment.

Global Supply Expansion Amplifies Pressure

Production forecasts from key suppliers are adding to the bearish backdrop. AgRural estimates Brazil’s first corn crop has reached only 10% harvest completion, trailing last year’s 14% pace. However, the second crop planting has progressed to 13%, exceeding last year’s corresponding pace by 4 percentage points. More importantly, StoneX increased its Brazilian first crop projection to 26.59 MMT, a 610,000 MT upward revision, while raising the second crop forecast to 106.37 MMT—representing a 560,000 MT increase. This expanded supply outlook from a major producer adds headwinds to near-term corn prices.

Current Contract Performance

March 26 corn futures are trading at $4.25, down 3 1/4 cents; May 26 contracts at $4.32 1/2, off 3 1/4 cents; and July 26 at $4.39, down 3 cents. The nearby cash price remains at $3.91 1/2. Market participants are clearly positioning for sustained pressure on corn valuations as export demand meets expanding global supplies.