Corn Market Faces Headwinds as Weekly Exports Disappoint

The corn complex experienced notable weakness during Monday’s midday trading session, with futures contracts declining 2 to 3 1/4 cents. According to CmdtyView’s national assessment, the Cash Corn price retreated 2 3/4 cents to settle at $3.91 1/2. The broader commodity environment reflected selling pressure, as crude oil slipped $3.48 per barrel while the US dollar index strengthened by $0.586. This confluence of factors created a challenging backdrop for grain markets overall.

Export Data Reveals Weakness in Weekly Corn Shipments

Monday morning’s Export Inspections report painted a disappointing picture for corn exporters. During the week ending January 29, total corn shipments reached 1.136 million metric tons (44.74 million bushels), marking a 9.88% decline from the previous week and falling 26.55% short of the same week last year. The export weakness suggests demand may be cooling despite ongoing global food security concerns. Japan emerged as the leading destination with 444,439 metric tons, followed by Mexico with 260,227 metric tons and Colombia receiving 147,478 metric tons. On a marketing year basis—spanning since September—cumulative corn exports have reached 32.611 million metric tons (1.284 billion bushels), which maintains a 49.86% advantage compared to the same period twelve months prior, indicating underlying strength despite recent weekly softness.

Trade Policy Shifts Offer Potential Support for Corn

President Trump’s announcement regarding negotiations with India’s President Modi introduced a potentially supportive dynamic for the agricultural sector. According to a Truth Social post issued near midday, the two leaders discussed tariff adjustments, with the United States reducing duties on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. More significantly, India committed to purchasing over $500 billion in US goods across energy, technology, agriculture, coal, and related products. This development carries particular relevance for corn and ethanol producers, given India’s historical position as a top-three or top-four buyer of American ethanol. Such a commitment could translate into meaningful demand stimulus if executed.

Brazil Corn Acreage Expands, Reshaping Global Supply Outlook

Supply dynamics from the Southern Hemisphere continue reshaping expectations. AgRural’s assessment indicated that Brazil’s first corn crop had reached 10% of harvest completion, trailing the 14% pace from the prior year. Meanwhile, the second crop plantings have advanced to 13% completion, running 4 percentage points ahead of last year’s schedule. These figures take on added significance given StoneX’s revised projections. The firm raised its first-crop estimate to 26.59 million metric tons, an increase of 610,000 metric tons from their previous assessment. Their second-crop projection was similarly upgraded to 106.37 million metric tons, reflecting a 560,000 metric ton upward revision. Such expansion in South American supplies adds to the structural pressures affecting corn prices in North American markets.

Speculative Positioning Adjusts as Commercials Reduce Longs

Commitment of Traders data from the CFTC revealed that managed money speculators trimmed their net short position in corn futures and options by 9,274 contracts during the week ending January 27. This reduction primarily reflected new long accumulation, with the net short position standing at 72,050 contracts. On the commercial side, activity moved in the opposite direction—large traders expanded their short positioning as net shorts increased by 17,381 contracts to reach 187,342 contracts. These positioning shifts suggest divergent views on corn’s near-term trajectory between speculative and commercial market participants.

Futures Complex Reflects Downside Pressure Across All Contract Months

The March 26 corn contract traded at $4.25, down 3 1/4 cents from the prior session. The nearby cash market remained under pressure at $3.91 1/2, off 2 3/4 cents. Looking to deferred contracts, May 26 corn retreated 3 1/4 cents to $4.32 1/2, while July 26 corn declined 3 cents to $4.39. The consistent downside pressure across the curve suggests broad-based selling rather than isolated weakness in any particular contract month. Combined with the disappointing export data, expanding South American supplies, and modest speculative long positioning, corn prices face continued headwinds unless demand catalysts emerge or supply concerns resurface.