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I observed that this sensational news did not actually trigger a significant market rebound.
Here are the key points of the news:
1️⃣ The U.S. Supreme Court rules that the President does not have the authority to impose additional tariffs
2️⃣ This ruling is a final and binding decision, with no possibility for further appeal
3️⃣ Approximately $150-175 billion in tariffs already collected are facing refunds
The mainstream view is that the market is beginning to price in: "Tariff removal → inflation decline → increased expectations of rate cuts." However, this logic is too linear.
The $150-175 billion in tariff refunds will not immediately turn into market liquidity. Most of this money is likely to flow into the real economy rather than financial assets, and the entire cycle of investment into the real economy will take at least 6-9 months. The impact on inflation won't be immediate, so patience and waiting for the transmission chain to gradually complete is the correct approach.