【$AR Signal】1H Oversold Rebound Play, Sniping the 4H Downtrend Channel Support

$AR The 1H timeframe has entered the oversold zone, with RSI dropping to 38. The price is initially supported around 1.96. The 4H timeframe is in a clear downtrend channel, but the current price has touched the lower boundary of the channel, and open interest remains stable with no signs of panic selling. There is a deep imbalance in buy orders on the 1H (14.27%), with accumulation below, indicating a technical rebound demand.

🎯Direction: Long (Playing the Oversold Rebound)

🎯Entry/Orders: 1.962 - 1.958 (Reason: 1H previous low support zone, 4H lower boundary of the downtrend channel, dense buy orders on the order book)

🛑Stop Loss: 1.945 (Reason: Break below the 4H channel lower boundary and dense support zone, ATR stop loss about 0.017)

🚀Target 1: 1.992 (Reason: 1H EMA20 and previous small platform resistance)

🚀Target 2: 2.008 (Reason: Recent high resistance level on the 4H timeframe)

🛡Trading Management:

- Position suggestion: Light position (Reason: The 4H main trend is still downward, this is a countertrend rebound play)

- Execution strategy: When the price rebounds to around 1.985 (risk-reward ratio 1:1), move the stop loss up to the entry point 1.962. Reduce half of the position at Target 1, and trail the remaining position to protect profits towards Target 2. If the price consolidates sideways without rising after entry, exit within 1 hour.

Deep Logic: The price declines but open interest remains stable, indicating it’s not major players offloading, but more like passive long liquidation. Negative funding rate (-0.0114%) may trigger short covering rebounds. The 1H RSI bottom divergence is brewing, with buy order depth significantly thicker than sell orders, providing liquidity for a rebound. Key is whether the price can stabilize above 1.958 and quickly pull back above 1.975 to confirm the rebound’s validity.

Check real-time market 👇 $AR

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