Could 2028 be the diamond bottom for BTC?

2026 is undoubtedly the worst start to the year for Bitcoin in nearly a decade.
From the black opening on January 1st to now, BTC has fallen from $109K to $65K, a 24% decline year-to-date. ETH fared even worse, dropping 34%. This is the worst start to the year for BTC since 2016.
But this time is different; this crash has no clear reason.
1. A fall without reason is the deepest fear
In 2018, a 73% drop was due to the ICO bubble burst, with many altcoins going to zero. In 2022, a 77% decline was caused by the Luna collapse, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX's bankruptcy. Every crash, you know the cause.
Each time, you know where the enemy is and how long trust rebuilding takes. But what about 2026?
• No exchange failures
• No algorithmic stablecoin collapse
• No hacking attacks
• No country banning BTC
It just fell. Fortune magazine said: "The worst start to the year in history," but there was no clear catalyst for a crash.
A justified crash usually leads to a rebound after negative sentiment is exhausted; but unjustified drops feel like a slow bleed. When everyone is asking why prices are falling but no answers are given, panic exponentially amplifies.
2. Have the bottom-fishing indicators been triggered?
Currently, market quantitative indicators show that the market has entered a vacuum zone of irrational sell-offs.
According to the latest data from February 25, our bottom-fishing model's current signal is only 1/5, far from the actual bottom(Data source: fuckbtc)
❌ MVRV < 1.0
❌ Price ≤ 200-week moving average
❌ Price < P25
✅ Fear & Greed Index ≤ 25 (Extreme Fear 11)
❌ Near shutdown price(Close to half the machines shutting down)
This level of extreme fear has only appeared in the $3,000 lows of late 2018 and during the FTX crisis at $16,000. Although the price is still around $65,000, market psychology has retreated to a doomsday mode.
3. Positive signals beneath the ice: who is exiting? who is trapped?
Despite feeling extremely cold, there are some positive signs:
1. USDT net outflow of $3B over 60 days. The last similar scale contraction was during the FTX collapse at the end of 2022, when BTC was around $16K. Now BTC is at $64K, four times higher than then.
The magnitude of fund withdrawal is similar, indicating that leverage and floating positions in the market have been cleaned up very thoroughly.
2. Short-term whales have unrealized losses of $26B. Most of these whales built positions between $90K and $120K, now trapped at a 40% loss. The selling pressure from further declines should be less intense.
Based on historical experience, when large funds are trapped this deep, active selling pressure tends to dry up—because cutting losses no longer makes logical sense.
➤ My opinion
I don’t predict this is the bottom(Most likely not)
But I know:
• Extreme fear (11) has already appeared
• Historically, unjustified drops tend to go deeper, but rebounds are also more vigorous
• At the $65K level, the safety margin is already relatively high
In 2018, those who said $3K was the bottom were right. In 2022, those who said $16K was the bottom were right. In 2026, the $64K bottom—may be correct, or may be wrong.
I don’t know.
But what I do know is: panic always passes, and once trust is rebuilt, prices will return.
If you are still holding no positions at this point, at least you have avoided the most severe retracement zone. Historically, sentiment tends to bottom out before prices do.
History repeats: After Mt. Gox was hacked in 2015, many believed trust could not be rebuilt; but looking back, every unjustified dark moment ultimately became a diamond bottom leading to the next cycle. The $64,000 in 2026 might be the number you look back on in 2028 and regret not adding to your position.