Research Report: Analysis of the Future Trends of Cryptocurrency under the U.S. Digital Strategy Transformation

Summary: This report analyzes the recent strategic shifts by the U.S. government in the digital asset space, particularly the transition from “enforcement regulation” to “legislative framework.” The study finds that the U.S. is attempting to extend dollar dominance into the digital realm by establishing the status of stablecoins and tokenizing RWA (Real-World Assets). The future cryptocurrency market will be highly segmented: compliant assets will become part of mainstream finance, while purely speculative assets will face liquidity shortages.

1. Background: The New Connotation of the U.S. “Code Strategy” The U.S. views not only cryptocurrencies as financial assets but also considers their underlying technology (blockchain code) as a key battleground for the next-generation internet infrastructure. The so-called “Code Strategy” is mainly reflected in three levels:

• Technical Sovereignty: Ensuring that core Web3 protocols, standards, and nodes are primarily controlled by Western or allied systems to prevent geopolitical rivals (such as China, Russia) from dominating decentralized networks.
• Digital Dollar Extension: Recognizing the privacy concerns surrounding CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies), the U.S. is shifting to support compliant private dollar stablecoins as tools to counter other sovereign digital currencies.
• Open Source Software and National Security: Incorporating the maintenance and governance of open-source code repositories into national security considerations, reviewing privacy protocols like Tornado Cash, establishing the red line that “code is speech” but “deployment and execution must be compliant.”

2. Analysis of U.S. Policy Trends: From Confrontation to Integration In recent years, the SEC has adopted aggressive “Regulation by Enforcement.” However, with recent legislative shifts (such as the advancement of the FIT21 Act), policies are moving toward “integration and regulation.”
3. Clarification of Regulatory Framework (SEC vs. CFTC)

• Trend: Regulatory jurisdiction is shifting from the SEC to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
• Impact: As long as decentralization is sufficient and there are no centralized financing commitments, more crypto assets will be regarded as “digital commodities.” This reduces compliance costs and benefits public chains like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), etc.

2. Stablecoin Legislation: A New Vehicle for the Dollar

• Core Trend: The U.S. Treasury and Congress are accelerating the passage of regulations on payment stablecoins.
• Strategic Intent: The U.S. is no longer suppressing compliant stablecoins like USDC or PYUSD but instead views them as vital tools to maintain U.S. debt demand and the dollar’s global circulation.
• Forecast: Stablecoin issuers will obtain federal banking licenses, and stablecoins will become deeply integrated into cross-border payment systems.

3. Anti-Money Laundering and Long-Arm Jurisdiction

• While open to transactions, the U.S. is imposing unprecedented KYC (Know Your Customer) requirements on DeFi front-ends, mixers, and deposit/withdrawal channels.

3. Market Evolution: Wall Street’s Full Entry The clarity of U.S. policies has directly led to the full entry of traditional finance (TradFi), fundamentally changing the market structure of cryptocurrencies.
4. RWA (Real-World Asset) Tokenization BlackRock, Franklin D. D. D. D., and other giants are actively promoting the tokenization of U.S. Treasuries, real estate, and stocks on-chain.

• Future Direction: On-chain U.S. Treasuries will become primary collateral in DeFi, replacing traditional “crypto-native yields” with “on-chain risk-free rates.”

2. Bitcoin and Ethereum’s “Goldification” and “Oilification”

• Bitcoin (BTC): With the proliferation of spot ETFs, BTC has transitioned from a “marginal asset” to “digital gold,” becoming part of institutional portfolios. Volatility will gradually decrease, and it will be highly correlated with macro liquidity (Federal Reserve rates).
• Ethereum (ETH): As the settlement layer of Web3, its value will depend more on on-chain economic activity, akin to “digital oil.”

4. Future Trends Forecast: Three Core Trends Based on the above analysis, we project the future of the crypto market into three main trends: Trend 1: Formation of a Bifurcated Market

• The market will split into two distinct worlds:
  • Regulated Whitelist Market: Dominated by regulators (Coinbase, Fidelity), trading BTC, ETH, and RWA tokens. Large capital flows but limited innovation.
  • Gray/Black Market: Purely anonymous coins, unverified Meme tokens, fully censorship-resistant DeFi protocols. These will face sanctions from the U.S. government, with liquidity isolated and high risk. Trend 2: Deep Integration of AI and Crypto (DePIN)
• U.S. tech firms are exploring blockchain as a layer for AI payment and verification.
• Direction: Distributed Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) will allow individuals to rent out GPU computing power for AI training and earn tokens. This is a supplementary means for the U.S. to maintain AI computing power advantages. Trend 3: “Application Chain” Transformation of Ethereum Killers
• As Layer 2 technologies mature, the narrative of single high-performance public chains (like early Solana, Avalanche) will shift toward “application chains” or “modular blockchains.” The focus will no longer be TPS (transactions per second), but ecosystem interoperability and compliant access.

5. Risks and Challenges Despite a long-term positive outlook, the next 1-2 years will face significant risks:

• Tax Compliance Storm: The IRS will implement stricter broker reporting rules (Form 1099-DA), potentially causing short-term capital outflows.
• Political Fluctuations: Although both parties favor regulation, Democrats lean toward stricter consumer protections, while Republicans favor deregulation. Mid-2026 elections and subsequent presidential elections may shift policy directions again.
• Quantum Computing Threats: As quantum technology advances, existing cryptographic algorithms may be challenged, forcing blockchain networks to upgrade via hard forks.

6. Conclusions and Recommendations The U.S. is transforming cryptocurrencies from “outlaws” into “digital extensions of the U.S. financial system” through its “Code Strategy.” Recommendations for investors and practitioners:

• Embrace Compliance: Focus on projects that align with U.S. regulatory frameworks and can integrate into traditional finance (e.g., RWA sectors, compliant DeFi).
• Infrastructure is Key: Pay attention to infrastructure combining AI and crypto (data verification, decentralized storage/computation).
• Avoid Pure Speculation: Tokens lacking practical utility and relying solely on Ponzi-like economic models will see their liquidity and survival space shrink under tightening regulation and liquidity constraints.