Weary U.S. Farmers Brace for More Uncertainty as Profits Remain Elusive

2026-02-26 17:27:19

By Kirk Maltais

U.S. farmers are receiving more help from the Trump administration this year, but for many, it’s simply not enough.

Farmers, frustrated by years of thin margins, are bracing for another difficult year as less than half are forecast to turn a profit in 2026.

Steve Turner farms 3,250 acres of corn, soybeans, and other crops in Chandlerville, Ill., alongside his wife and two sons. His sons also operate a small trucking firm, with one of his sons selling seeds on the side. Jobs outside of the farm are common in rural areas, and they’ve become increasingly important for farmers needing to scrape by in tough times.

“In these economic times, diversified income becomes a need and necessity,” said Turner.

For the first time since Covid-19 in 2020, under 50% of producers are expected to be in the black, according to data from the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp., otherwise known as Farmer Mac. Fears of another tough year in farm country have lenders cautious ahead of the start of spring planting in April, with farm debt estimated by the Department of Agriculture to rise by 5.2% in 2026 to $625 billion, a new record.

“We see farmers saying ‘yeah, it’s getting too hard,’” said Shelby Bass, author of an outlook published by agricultural lender AgAmerica this month.

That’s even with the $44 billion in direct payments coming from the federal government this year - the second-largest swath of federal aid to farmers on record. This is the first week for farmers to file to receive their share of an $11 billion tranche of so-called “bridge payments,” according to the USDA.

While farmers welcome the help, the aid comes after years of falling behind financially, meaning that a lot of the money will go directly back to creditors. With costs for necessary inputs such as fertilizer and seeds higher than they were at this time last year, cash-strapped farmers are stuck in a vicious cycle.

“If you’re having to spend a lot of your money on debt payments, you have a lot less cash available,” said Carrie Litkowski, senior economist with the USDA’s Economic Research Service, during a presentation at the USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Va. last week.

Amplifying the crunch in working capital is the Supreme Court ruling Friday that global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal. President Trump has said that his tariff campaign will continue using different statutes, instituting a new 10% global tariff using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and promising even more.

A new round of tariff wars is the last thing farmers like Turner want to hear. “It adds a lot of market uncertainty out here, and a lot of volatility,” he said. “Usually, that doesn’t work long-term for our profitability.”

According to Turner, his budget going into planting season is tight. “Every input we do to raise a crop is higher than last year,” said Turner. “It makes it very hard to set up this year being very profitable.”

Some 93% of agricultural lenders surveyed by Farmer Mac said that they expect farm debt to grow over the course of this year. A separate study from Purdue University shows that farmers in Indiana will likely lose money for almost any row crop they plant this spring.

Corn planted in average soil with a typical corn-soybean crop rotation is projected to lose nearly $150 an acre, while soybeans planted in a normal rotation are seen losing almost $90 an acre. Planting corn is more expensive due to the amount of fertilizer it requires.

On the other side, prices for corn and soybeans have improved since finding lows last summer. But they remain roughly 80 cents to 90 cents a bushel off from what Purdue forecasts as “break-even levels” for farmers working on average productivity soil.

But forecasts are assuming that a major weather event doesn’t completely reshape the market, which is not a safe bet. In spring 2019, lackluster farming economics turned around as flooding prevented many farmers from planting crops. While taking many Midwestern farmers out for the year, the flooding pushed corn prices up 20% by that summer.

Absent severe weather disturbances in the Corn Belt, farmers are left in a position where they must once again withstand economic pressure that doesn’t appear to be going anywhere.

“Let’s just say this is a continuing cycle,” said Turner. “It’s going to get very difficult for a lot of guys out here.”

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

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February 26, 2026 11:55 ET (16:55 GMT)

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