Thoughts on the Future of $BTC

Bitcoin dropping from 126,000 to 60,000 is not a collapse; it’s just that we are currently in a downtrend phase. Many people always think this time will be different because Wall Street capital has entered the scene, including treasury investors represented by MicroStrategy, institutional investment channels like ETFs, and the global compliance process is accelerating. Under these narratives, although Bitcoin can’t rise forever, it at least won’t plummet like in previous cycles.
But in the end, they overthink it. The four-year cycle pattern still hasn’t been broken this time. Even with more institutions supporting the floor, it still has to fall when it’s time to fall. The downtrend remains unstoppable. For assets like Bitcoin and gold, which are speculative, you can’t directly set a price; their rise and fall depend entirely on sentiment and demand. But once demand weakens and sentiment starts to fade, coupled with the liquidation of large profit-taking positions and leverage in the derivatives market, a significant correction is inevitable.
Everyone has their own investment logic. Market changes are made up of countless different investment rationales, and what influences the trend is often the most widely believed ones—i.e., consensus determines value. For example, with gold, if you’re betting on global de-dollarization, you’ll closely watch the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy cycle, changes in foreign countries’ U.S. Treasury reserves, and the shift in the dollar’s share among a basket of currencies. These factors can influence gold’s long-term trend.
If you’re betting on increasing tensions in global political relations, then keep an eye on the latest international developments, such as whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict will worsen again, the potential for sudden changes in Middle Eastern situations, and the rising direct friction between the U.S. and other countries. These can also impact gold’s medium- to long-term movement.
You can bet on fundamentals, technicals, or combine both. In short, investing also requires logical consistency to establish rules and basis for buying and selling.
When one day these logics reach their limits or the hype becomes too intense, Bitcoin’s current situation might resemble what gold could face in the future. Because no asset can rise forever; it’s just that wealth redistribution occurs during the ups and downs.