Everyone keeps asking if btc has bottomed. honestly i've been thinking about this for weeks now and i have some thoughts.

let me break down what i'm actually seeing.

THE CRASH WAS HISTORIC

BTC hit $125,000 in october 2025. then everything fell apart. trump tariffs. ai fears. microsoft earnings miss. etf outflows. one thing after another. by early february we were sitting at $59,980. that's a 52% crash in roughly 4 months.

fear and greed hit 5 at one point. to put that in perspective, we didn't even see 5 during the 2018 bear market or the 2020 covid crash. that's how bad sentiment got

WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK

btc bounced back to $68,000+. $400M in shorts got liquidated. etf inflows came back above $506M in a single day. coinbase premium turned positive for the first time in 40 days. google "buy bitcoin" searches hit levels we haven't seen since february 2021.

retail is coming back. institutions are coming back. two things happening at the same time is not a coincidence.

BUT I’M NOT FULLY CONVINCED YET

here's the thing that keeps me cautious. historically btc doesn't form a real bottom until the 50-week moving average crosses below the 100-week moving average. we're nowhere near that signal right now. the 50-week is still well above the 100-week.

every major bear market bottom in 2018 and 2022 was confirmed by this cross. we haven't seen it yet.

also $8.8 billion in btc and eth options expired today. max pain for btc was $75,000. we're still way below that. the market isn't fully convinced either.

WHAT I THINK HAPPENS NEXT

$68,000 to $70,000 is the real test zone. if btc can close above $70,000 and hold it for a few days that changes the narrative completely. but if macro gets worse, if tariffs escalate, if etf flows reverse again, we could see another leg down.

i'm not calling a bottom. but i'm also not calling for $50,000 anymore. the data is improving. slowly. carefully.

Watching not trading. but the accumulation at these levels is hard to ignore.

#DeepDiveCreatorCamp #BTC