Evening Market Analysis!

After playing in the crypto space for so long, I’ve finally figured it out: no matter how precise your technical analysis is, it can be overridden by a sudden news event; no matter how strong the support level, it can't withstand a black swan attack. Trading against the trend is a big taboo, but human nature loves to take chances, myself included. I always feel that after a decline to the right level, a rebound should happen, but as soon as news of Israel’s raid on Iran breaks out, it directly breaks through the stop-loss.

Before the news broke, Bitcoin was moving steadily, consolidating in a range and ready to push higher. Once negative news hit, the market instantly collapsed, plunging all the way down. The bullish patterns and key support levels I previously saw were all broken, and weak rebounds failed to regain ground. This is just a struggle during the decline, not a reversal.

Currently, the short-term key support is around 62900. If it holds, there’s still a chance for consolidation; if it doesn’t, it’s likely to continue downward. To truly stop the decline and rebound, the price must return to the consolidation zone. If it can’t get back in, don’t expect a bottom soon. If geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate, any support levels will be useless.

Here’s a simple and straightforward trading reference for everyone: if volume increases and it stabilizes above 63819, consider adding longs expecting a rebound, with targets first at 64858-65658; if volume drops and it breaks below 62413, and then fails to rebound, go short accordingly.

For medium-term trading, be more cautious. If the 4-hour chart breaks below 62900, the downside opens up, with potential targets at 61910-60750. On the daily chart, it’s best not to fall below 62900; if it does, there’s a 70% chance it will test the previous low at 59888. If that level is lost again, the market will be in serious trouble. Currently, the daily chart has shown signs of a correction; if another bearish candle appears, the downtrend will be officially underway.

Finally, a reminder: in the face of black swan events, all technicals are just clouds. Keep your hands steady, set proper stop-losses, don’t fight the trend, and never oppose the news.