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1. Iran announces strikes against US military targets in the Middle East, using missiles and drones, claiming to have achieved results.
2. Iran clarifies "no intention to attack the US mainland" and states that the Supreme Leader is still alive.
3. The US Secretary-General of the United Nations calls for de-escalation, emphasizing the need to avoid escalation.
4. The United Nations Security Council holds an emergency meeting.
5. Israel states it will continue strikes for at least a week.
6. Gold surges, following safe-haven sentiment.
Core meaning:
The current situation is an "escalation of regional conflict, but still confined to the Middle East." Iran sends strong signals but deliberately avoids full-scale war. The US and UN tend to control the situation, indicating they do not want the situation to spiral out of control in the short term.
Market impact assessment:
Short-term: Clearly negative for risk assets (cryptocurrencies, US stocks), positive for safe-haven assets like gold and oil.
Medium-term: If the conflict does not spill over into the US mainland or escalate into full-scale war, the impact is mostly emotional, potentially evolving into a "recovery after negative sentiment."
Key variables: Whether it escalates into direct US-Iran war, whether it affects energy supply.
Summary:
The current situation is "sentiment-driven negative + safe-haven inflow," but not yet at a systemic financial risk level. The market is mainly experiencing increased short-term volatility.