The US and Iran are on the brink of war. What should you buy when the market opens next week? Almost everyone is talking about buying oil, gold, and military stocks.

But no one is telling you: hedge funds are at their highest net long positions in crude oil in 22 months, gold has risen for seven consecutive months, surpassing the $5,278 historical high, and the military sector has already gained between 17% and 34% this year. Smart money has already set the stage before Friday; the price you can buy at on Monday’s open is the price they are willing to sell to you.

In 2020, when the US killed Soleimani, oil prices jumped 4% on the first day but were completely retraced within a week. In June 2025, Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, causing oil prices to surge over 12%, only to return to pre-attack levels two weeks later.

Soros’ reflexivity theory explains this: when everyone is already long, the marginal buyers disappear, leaving only sellers. Consensus itself creates the conditions for its own reversal.

There’s another rarely discussed factor: this is an election year. Trump needs a “quick victory” to showcase American strength and then declare the mission accomplished. He doesn’t want a prolonged conflict; voters don’t want a second Iraq, nor do they want oil prices to spiral out of control. Rising inflation and falling approval ratings are concerns. If this political calculation holds, the conflict is likely to cool down within a few weeks. How long the conflict lasts is a key variable in deciding whether to follow a trend or to mean-revert, and it’s much more important than “what to buy.”