#美国以色列突袭伊朗 What’s next for Bitcoin amid the US-Iran risk aversion wave?

As the US-Iran conflict escalates and Wall Street shifts to risk aversion, Bitcoin experiences sharp short-term volatility. The narrative of digital gold temporarily loses its effectiveness, dominated by the high-risk asset nature. Combining geopolitical, macroeconomic, technical, and capital factors, I provide a clear trend analysis and key levels to help you understand the upcoming market movements.

Current Market Core Contradiction: Geopolitical panic suppresses risk appetite, high interest rate environment persists, coupled with high leverage in the crypto space causing liquidations. After the conflict erupted, BTC quickly dropped to $63,216, with nearly $500 million in liquidations across the network within 24 hours, over 140,000 traders forced to sell. Institutions prioritized selling high-volatility assets; gold surged while BTC weakened, indicating that in the short term, prices are still being driven by risk asset valuation.

Short-term Trend (1–3 days): Wide-range consolidation, difficult to surge or plunge deeply
Strong support levels are at $63,000–$64,500, where previous heavy withdrawals, mining companies, and ETF funds have shown absorption; breaking below this range is unlikely. The first resistance is at $68,000–$70,000; only a stable breakout with increased volume can open up a rebound. The likely pattern is “testing support → attempting rebound → repeated shakeouts,” with volatility maintained at 5%–8%. Avoid chasing longs or blindly bottom-fishing.

Medium-term Trend (1–2 weeks): Direction depends on three major variables

1. Geopolitical intensity: Controlled conflict → oscillation and recovery; escalation blocking the strait → oil prices push inflation expectations, BTC initially suppresses then rebounds;

2. Liquidity: US CPI data and Federal Reserve statements determine rate cut expectations; delayed rate cuts continue to exert pressure;

3. Capital flows: Slowing net outflows from spot ETFs suggest stabilization; continued outflows indicate further downside.

Baseline scenario: If the conflict does not fully escalate, BTC consolidates in the $63,000–$72,000 range, digesting panic and leverage.

Long-term Logic (1–3 months): Structural support remains
Institutional demand for allocation persists; halving cycle and compliance trends unchanged. Current prices have retraced sufficiently from highs, and selling pressure gradually diminishes. If geopolitical tensions ease and liquidity expectations improve, a rebound could restart, with initial targets at $75,000–$80,000, then challenging previous highs.

Trading and Risk Reminder
Strictly control leverage, adopt small position swings; test support levels with small longs, reduce positions at resistance levels under pressure; cut losses and wait if breaking below $63,000, follow the trend if breaking above $70,000. Main risks include geopolitical black swans, ETF capital outflows, and hawkish Fed surprises.

Bitcoin is experiencing short-term volatility and weak rebounds, with medium-term outlook dependent on geopolitical and liquidity factors. Long-term institutional logic remains unchanged. Avoid betting on a single direction; follow signals and prioritize risk management to seize opportunities amid fluctuations.