The Russia-Ukraine war, which erupted in February 2022, has been a turning point that profoundly affected global energy markets, commodity prices, and investor psychology. Four years later, in March 2026, this ongoing conflict continues to shape direct oil supply and indirectly safe-haven assets. The most noticeable impact of the war was seen in energy markets. Russia's role as a producer supplying approximately 10% of the world's oil, combined with Western sanctions, caused Brent oil prices to skyrocket to levels around $130 in the initial years. The shockwave at that time fueled global inflation and put energy-importing countries (including Turkey) under serious current account deficit pressure. While the picture has changed somewhat by 2026, the shadow of the war still hangs over us. Recently, with new flare-ups in the Middle East (particularly the US-Israel-Iran tension), oil prices have jumped again. Brent crude has seen a rapid rise in recent days from $73 to the $77-78 range – with some sources reporting jumps of up to 13% at the open, marking one of the sharpest daily increases since the 2022 Russian invasion. Much of this rise stems from the near-halt of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and fears of supply disruptions. However, while the Russia-Ukraine front hasn't directly closed, the overall geopolitical risk premium created by the war remains a persistent upward pressure on oil prices. On the gold side, the story is clearer and more consistent: Since the war began, gold has become the strongest "safe haven" amidst central bank reserve diversification efforts, sanctions evasion attempts, and global uncertainty. Between 2022 and 2025, central banks doubled their gold purchases; Russia's frozen reserves further accelerated this trend. In March 2026, an ounce of gold is trading in the $5,300-$5,400 range – some predictions are talking about $6,000 by the end of the year, or even $10,000 in the long term. In Türkiye, the price of gold per gram is climbing from around 7,500-7,800 TL. The fear of inflation created by the war, the volatility of the dollar, and risk aversion in equity markets are among the factors constantly fueling the rise of gold. So, how "active" is the impact of this war today?

Under the dusty skies of the Middle East, the sirens fell silent just after midnight, but their echoes still rang in our ears. On the morning of March 2, 2026, when the world awoke and opened its curtains, the scene was the same: old hostilities had been reignited with a new flame. Jets from Washington and Tel Aviv had cast their shadows over strategic Iranian targets hours earlier. Tehran's response was swift; missiles shot up into the sky, shaking the waters of the Strait of Hormuz and altering the course of oil tankers overnight. No one knew exactly what would happen, but everyone felt the same thing: security was now a luxury. In New York, financial screens were painted black and gold instead of blood red. Brent opened at $73 a barrel and was challenging $83 by 8:00 AM. WTI briefly touched $75 before retreating, but the fire of the rise hadn't died down. Analysts whispered: "If the Strait closes, $100 is not a dream." Tanker insurance premiums had increased by 400% overnight, and some captains had already changed course to the Cape of Good Hope. The numbers on the pumps at gas stations seemed to be spinning on their own. At the same time, another story was unfolding in London and Tokyo. Gold, as it had for centuries, shone in the shadow of chaos. Starting at $5,263 per ounce, its journey had surpassed $5,420 in a few hours. In Turkey, the price of gold per gram jumped from around 7,800 to 8,100 lira, and shopkeepers in the Grand Bazaar were muttering, "This is a war price." Silver followed suit; beyond industrial demand, a wave of demand fueled by fear was sending metals soaring. Why were investors flocking to gold? Because with stocks falling, the dollar rising, and bonds trembling, only one truth remained: no one could guarantee the future. Gold and silver were doing what they had done for millennia; silently proclaiming, "I am here," amidst the uncertainty. Markets watched breathlessly. On one side, the routes of tankers, on the other, the ranges of missiles… Each new wave of news was shaking the price charts like an ocean. Some said, “This is a temporary panic,” while others warned, “A repeat of 1973 and 1979 is beginning.”
Later in the morning, another piece of news came from the Strait of Hormuz: the Iranian navy had brought several ships closer to the strait under the guise of “exercise.” Oil prices jumped once again. Gold, however, continued to climb calmly and slowly. As if an old sage were saying, “I’m not in a hurry.”
The world waited, holding its breath. Because this wasn’t just a dance of numbers. This was a story where the old continents were pregnant with a new conflagration, and even safe harbors were turbulent. And the story was just beginning.
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