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🇺🇸 4-Year Presidential Cycle and the S&P 500
The S&P 500 continues to follow the 4-year presidential cycle with high precision.
In midterm election years, the index often strengthens into the first quarter.
Liquidity improves early. Risk appetite rises.
March and April frequently mark a local annual high.
After that, capital flows into equity funds tend to slow.
By summer, net inflows often turn negative as investors adjust exposure ahead of autumn elections.
This pattern repeats because political uncertainty affects positioning.
Funds rebalance. Volatility expectations shift. Risk compresses.
If history holds, the strongest window closes into late spring.
Seasonality favors caution through the summer months.
“Sell in May” reflects flow dynamics, not folklore.
Watch liquidity.
Watch positioning.
Watch whether this cycle continues to align with historical behavior.
#SP500 #Macro