Missed the 74,000 mark

Closing price: $74,056.5.

He stared at the number for a long time, then turned off the screen, got up to pour some water. He picked up the cup, then put it down again, forgot to drink the water.

Three days ago, he sold his last Bitcoin at 68,500.

The reasons were solid: daily divergence at the top, RSI overbought, the Federal Reserve might turn hawkish. He posted these analyses in the group, received a bunch of likes. At that moment, he felt like a rational god.

And then the market went up. 71,000, 72,000, 73,000, 74,000. Every day was a slap in the face, every day hurt more than the last.

The person in the group who always posts gambling dog emojis has been silent like he disappeared these days. Until this morning, he suddenly popped up with a message: “Those who buy against me will definitely make money.” Accompanied by that self-deprecating meme.

He looked at that message, forced a smile. Turns out, the most painful thing isn’t losing money, but realizing you saw the technical indicators correctly, yet still lost to market sentiment.

On the candlestick chart, the price had already broken through all the resistance lines he drew. Those analyses he was proud of now looked like scrap paper. Someone in the group started @ him: “Boss, missed the boat, huh?” He didn’t reply. He didn’t know what to say. Admit he was wrong? Or explain that the market is irrational?

Actually, the market is always rational. It’s people who are irrational.

He remembered 2019, the first time he missed out. Back then, Bitcoin rose from 4,000 to 10,000, and he sold at 6,000, thinking he was a swing trading expert. Watching the price go north, he chased at 9,000, then the bear market came, and he was trapped for a whole year.

That bull-bear cycle taught him two things: first, don’t sell easily; second, if you do sell, don’t chase high out of frustration.

But knowing the truth and doing the truth are two different things.

Outside, the breakfast stall’s shouts could be heard. He reopened the screen, looked at the number 74,056, and took a deep breath.

Missed the boat, so be it. The market always offers opportunities, as long as you’re still alive and have bullets.

He closed the trading app, opened a book. The title was *The Intelligent Investor*. On the flyleaf, there was a quote from Buffett: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

He thought for a moment, set two rules for himself: don’t chase highs, don’t borrow money, wait for a pullback. $BTC ‌

Then he picked up the cup and finally drank that cold water.