Three cryptocurrencies with a 95% chance of ETF approval: a complete guide to potential surges

The approval of ETF funds has become the main driver of cryptocurrency growth throughout 2024-2025. After the successful launch of spot exchange-traded funds on Bitcoin and Ethereum, regulators are preparing to review applications for other digital assets. According to Bloomberg, by the end of the first quarter of 2026, funds for several major coins could be approved — and three of them have particularly high chances of success.

Erik Balchunas and James Seffart from Bloomberg analyzed the application portfolios (S-1 forms) and assessed the approval probability for each asset. Their forecasts are based on the SEC’s stance on asset classification, the presence of futures contracts, and historical approval experiences.

LTC, SOL, and XRP: Bloomberg’s favorites for ETF approval

Analysts estimate that three coins have a 95% chance of receiving approval for spot ETFs. All have already gained commodity status in the eyes of regulators, which is critical for passing review.

Litecoin (LTC) remains one of the most reliable candidates. Applications for a spot ETF have been submitted by Canary, Grayscale, and Coinshares, with a review deadline of October 2, 2025. LTC’s current price is $56.60, with a daily increase of +3.54%, demonstrating stable demand.

Solana (SOL) attracted the attention of nine financial firms — Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, Bitwise, Franklin, Fidelity, Coinshares, and Invesco. With a deadline of October 10, 2025, this number of applicants indicates high confidence in success. The current SOL price is $90.18, with a +5.47% daily growth and a trading volume of $91.65 million.

XRP has seven applicants: Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Coinshares, and Franklin. The deadline is October 17, 2025. XRP’s current price is $1.42, with a +5.25% increase over 24 hours and a trading volume of $116.15 million.

The high approval probability for these three coins is explained by the SEC’s view of them as commodities, which are already regulated by the CFTC through futures contracts. This means that the appearance of spot funds for these assets is a logical and predictable development.

Why ETF approval triggers explosive crypto growth

ETF approval influences coin prices through four key mechanisms, which work synergistically:

Direct asset purchases. To manage the fund’s portfolio, market makers need to constantly buy the underlying asset on the spot market. This creates a steady flow of buying, supporting and increasing upward pressure on the price.

Expansion of the investor base. ETFs are accessible via standard brokerage platforms, opening the door for conservative funds and institutional investors who previously couldn’t trade directly on crypto exchanges. This new capital often significantly impacts trading volumes.

Regulatory signal and risk reduction. SEC approval automatically confirms the asset’s legality and greatly reduces legal risks for conservative capital. Many traditional funds have been waiting for such a signal to start investing.

Information effect and FOMO. News of approval generates media buzz, attracts retail investor attention, and creates a fear of missing out. Even before institutional capital actually flows in, speculative demand often drives the price higher.

The combined effect of these four factors has historically led to significant price jumps at ETF launches, as seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum in previous years.

Probability table: when other coins might get ETF approval

Besides the three favorites, other assets have also applied for ETF approval. Bloomberg has compiled a full ranking of probabilities and review deadlines:

Dogecoin presents an interesting case — despite being a meme coin, its market cap of $14.79 billion and current price of $0.10 (+7.63%) have attracted the attention of major issuers. With a 90% approval chance, DOGE could become the next big target after the top three.

Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche are second-wave candidates with 90% likelihood. All three are smart contract platforms with their own ecosystems, making them serious competitors to the top three. AVAX is priced at $9.46 (+3.08%), and DOT trades at $1.53.

Other candidates: coins with lower chances of ETF approval

Not all applications are equally promising. SUI, Tron, and Pengu have lower approval ratings (50-60%) due to uncertain SEC classification.

SUI has a 60% chance, with a current price of $0.95 and a +5.53% increase. Its relative youth as a blockchain platform works against it.

Tron (TRX), an established player with a $27 billion market cap, still faces classification questions. Its current price is $0.28, with a +1.72% increase.

Pengu is a newcomer with a market cap of only $442.54 million and a 50% chance. The review deadline is March 12, 2026.

Why Bloomberg’s forecasts can be trusted

A key factor is the proven track record of Balchunas and Seffart. Both analysts previously accurately predicted the outcomes of spot ETF application reviews for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Their current forecasts for other coins are based on the same methodological approach and analysis of regulator positions.

For investors, this means that LTC, SOL, and XRP deserve close attention regarding potential ETF approval. Historically, each new ETF launch has led to a 20-100% revaluation of the underlying asset within months of approval. Given that ETF approval could happen in the coming months, early positioning might be a strategically advantageous move.