Is 74,000 the starting point or the final gunshot at the finish line?

Brothers, this is huge!

Bitcoin surged violently all the way up to 74,000, and altcoins jumped 5%, the market is boiling. Is the trend about to turn bullish again?

Next, the big players will have to pour cold water on you.

Based on painful lessons from history: 90% of crashes are preceded by a similar surge! In 2014, 2018, and 2022, the three bear markets followed the same script: first a fake rally to lure in buyers, then a sudden crash to wipe out retail investors, leaving chaos behind. It’s all big money’s calculation—no conspiracy, just a calculated move.

So here’s the question: why does a big surge always come before a crash? The answer lies in these four aspects:

1. Major institutions induce buying at high levels to dump their holdings. Large funds hold massive chips and want to cash out profits. They can’t just dump all at once, or it’ll trigger panic selling and crash the price, making it hard to sell at a good price. The only way is to create a big bullish candle, fake the breakout and the start of a new upward wave, luring retail and trapped funds to rush in. Meanwhile, the big players quietly offload their chips at high levels. Once they’re done, no one is left to support, and a sharp crash follows.

2. Overbought rebounds are just a brief flash of light. After a period of decline, many traders are on the sidelines or holding small positions. A little positive news can trigger short covering and bottom-fishing, creating a fierce V-shaped rebound that looks like a reversal. But the overall trend, fundamentals, and liquidity haven’t changed. When the rebound hits resistance, trapped and profit-taking orders hit simultaneously, causing new lows. This rally is just a “springboard” for the next drop.

3. Short squeeze and reverse kill, the most ruthless tactic of market manipulators. When there are too many shorts, a slight rise triggers stop-losses and forced liquidations, pushing prices higher. Passive buy orders drive the price up sharply. In the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled $470 million, with 90% of them being short positions. But brothers, although it looks like the bulls are unstoppable now, these buy orders are mostly forced coverages, not genuine confidence. Once the shorts are out, real selling pressure takes over, leading to a sudden crash. The 2020 US stock circuit breaker and the 2022 crypto flash crash follow this script.

4. Derivatives mechanisms create false illusions. Both US stocks and crypto markets often see large put options, forcing market makers to buy the underlying to hedge. As prices rise, hedging intensifies, creating a positive feedback loop and a surge in prices. When options expire, hedging demand disappears, and prices plummet—giving the illusion of a trap or fake rally. The December 2018 sideways period was an exception—markets stayed flat for nine months without falling, as big players had no choice but to liquidate leveraged longs directly, or else they’d be helping retail traders. Such cases are rare.

In summary: big funds want to exit completely, so they create a fake rally to lure in the last wave of buyers. Once they offload their holdings, no one is left to support, and a crash becomes inevitable. This is driven by profit motives, exploiting information asymmetry and herd mentality—absolutely not coincidence.

Looking at today’s market with this logic, it’s clear: Bitcoin hitting 74K, Ethereum breaking 2200, all in the green, panic and greed index soaring—seems like a big trend is coming. But in my view, risk is approaching.

The core driver of this rally is expectations of regulation plus capital inflow. It’s not just a fake move. On the positive side, Trump supports crypto legislation, SEC issues new guidelines, the White House crypto summit is on March 7, crypto reserves are being established, and EU’s MiCA regulation is coming at the end of the month. Global compliance is accelerating—these are real positives.

In terms of capital, South Korea’s foreign capital is fleeing, some safe-haven funds are entering crypto, Bitcoin ETF selling pressure eases, institutional funds are returning; Ethereum’s on-chain activity hits a ten-year high, new addresses add 280,000 daily, LSD and staking ETFs are hot, fundamentals support the space, giving manipulators room to play.

But brothers, don’t get overconfident. This rally is a technical rebound, not a trend reversal. The short-term RSI is overbought, prices are far from moving averages, profit-taking is heavy, and a pullback could happen at any time. The Fed hasn’t cut interest rates yet, liquidity isn’t fully loosened, and big funds are hesitant to go all-in. This rise is just a realization of good news plus an oversold bounce. Don’t chase high now.

Markets rise rapidly, but people tend to get impatient and impulsive—chasing the top is easy. Remember what the big players say: control your position size, take profits in stages, don’t be greedy or panic.

For Bitcoin, the 74K-75K zone is a high-pressure line. Breaking through is tough; chasing high will likely lead to a shakeout. The best approach is to scale into short positions in this range, riding the wave created by the big players. Support is around 70K-71K—hold this zone, and the bulls won’t collapse. If it dips, small positions can be added at support. Don’t chase the rally.

Ethereum follows Bitcoin closely, with no independent trend. Resistance is at 2200-2250, support at 2060-2100, and strong support at 2000. The same strategy applies—trade in tandem, no need to overthink.

In the short term, the main strategy is to short high and buy low, with around 74,000 as a resistance zone—more profitable than bottom-fishing. If you want to go long, wait for support at 70,000-71,000. One last reminder: in this bear market, don’t leverage more than 5x or you’ll be doomed. Big players can shake the market with 3-5 thousand point swings; with 50-100x leverage, how much capital can withstand their fire?

Brothers, the market now is a dual script: recovery bounce and “beware of fake rallies.” The positives are real, but so are the risks. Investing is like slow-cooking soup—don’t turn up the heat too fast. Don’t panic about missing out or blindly going long.

Our job is to recognize the big players’ tactics: don’t chase the surge, don’t panic during dips, wait for clear signals before acting. Opportunities are always there; what’s missing is the capital to stay in the game. Rest assured, the trend will come, and avoid the traps you shouldn’t touch. Follow the trend! If you haven’t followed yet, hit follow now. Big players and you will grow rich together! #IranNewLeader#CryptoMarketRebound#Trump15%GlobalTariffsEffectiveThisWeek#WoshNominated—GoodNewsOrBadNews#HotTopics