Today’s Market -- So Strange, Is There a Market on Binance Spot That Can’t Be Moved?


Today’s Asian market is quite peculiar. Let’s start by looking at the funding situation.
Figure 1: Starting from yesterday’s US session, yesterday’s US market was kicked off with Binance forcing two strong pushes. Then, an hour after opening, Coinbase inexplicably surged... As mentioned yesterday.
Later, it became clear that the price couldn’t go higher; after breaking through 72k, Coinbase started to sell off... So, a trap.
But the first surprising point is that, according to today’s statistics, yesterday’s ETF saw a net inflow of 250 million? Given Coinbase’s CVD showing selling in the second half, I don’t understand this...
At the same time, looking at the market over the past week, ETF inflows of 250 million usually can trigger a one-way move within the day... But yesterday was a trap, and the selling pressure was even heavier than during the several large net inflows over the past week.
This is the first strange aspect of the funding situation.
The second strange aspect comes from today’s Asian session. You can see that Binance’s spot funds have been continuously buying, with CVD accumulating to +1000.
Typically, Binance’s spot can dominate the market. But with such buying, the price still remains in this range, and it has even formed a converging wedge, looking like it could break down at any moment...
This also shows a very strong passive selling pressure...
Figure 2: From the order book, now the sell orders above 72k have increased... While the buy orders below are mostly around 68.5k, with some small orders at 68k. Coupled with this contracting wedge, yesterday’s low at 69.2k looks very fragile... Considering the bearish divergence in spot CVD, I feel there’s a higher probability of a downward move here.
Figure 3: Currently, around 69.5k, things are probably very tangled... Several VWAP lines are almost converging...
Will it stabilize and establish a new sideways value zone, or will it fall back down?
The market is probably as conflicted as I am...
Figure 4: Looking at options data, the range from 66k to 74k is still influenced by positive gamma, which suppresses volatility... And the skew has not shown much fluctuation in recent days. The options market currently does not have very aggressive bets or hedging actions...
For today’s key levels, watch below the low point of 69.2k from yesterday for potential SFP (while the 65.5k VWAP has also moved up to 69k). If there’s no SFP here, continue to monitor the large range POC near 68k mentioned yesterday.
Above, keep an eye on the reaction around 72k... Yesterday, a short squeeze started from 71.2k, so I’ll be watching around 71~71.2k to see if there’s a rush to jump ahead...
COINON-4,21%
SFP-5,83%
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