Monday early morning at 6:00 AM, global markets woke up in a familiar yet dangerous atmosphere. - Oil prices surged, with Brent crude reaching $105 and US crude hitting $100; - Gold, silver, and US stock index futures gapped down at the open, though they later recovered some losses. Once the news came out, the market's first reaction was: oil is more expensive, risks are greater. First, the overall situation continues to escalate, but the flood of headline news makes investors reluctant to make one-sided bets — the market is waiting for the next big event. The US suddenly attacked Kharg Island, Iran's largest oil export hub (nearly all Iranian oil exports go through here), triggering an oil price surge. This news is a turning point in both military and energy history; the "limited conflict" script has expired. The market is not only worried about supply disruptions (physically running out of oil), but more concerned about Iran's retaliation methods — specifically, comprehensive and indiscriminate interference with the Strait of Hormuz. The current oil price of $105 doesn't actually factor in the extreme scenario of "complete strait closure." However, the US continues to create news to artificially suppress oil prices: A Wall Street Journal report limited oil gains. The report cited statements from US officials saying the White House plans to announce as early as this week that the US intends to form a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition to provide escorts for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz (extending along Iran's coastline). However, they are still discussing whether these operations would begin before or after hostile actions end. But various nations may be reluctant to respond to Trump's call and mobilize limited resources to help reopen an almost completely closed strait. Kevin Hassett, Trump's senior advisor and White House National Economic Council director, stated that the Pentagon estimates the Iran mission could take four to six weeks to complete, and US progress is ahead of schedule. Second, the market is not trading war, but rather trading "energy shock." After a weekend, increasingly more Wall Street analysts believe that oil at $100 is just the starting point. As long as oil prices don't come down, markets will remain tense. Third, global markets are re-entering "risk mode," with an important signal coming from market sentiment. Bank of America has an indicator called the "cross-asset implied volatility index," which simultaneously tracks stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities. It shows that the speed of rising market stress is the fastest since last year's "Liberation Day" tariff shock. The current tension level in markets has approached that of a policy shock. Fourth, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision this week, but markets no longer believe in rate cuts. Before the war, markets expected two rate cuts this year; now there's not even expected to be one. If Powell's remarks this week are even slightly dovish, it will be interpreted as "abandoning inflation fighting"; if he's hawkish, it could directly detonate the currently fragile market. Wednesday will be an important turning point. Do not chase rallies; all gains are illusions. Capital is currently only buying Bitcoin to hedge risks. Continuing higher directly back to 100,000 is impossible. Sharp rallies will inevitably pull back.