#加密市场上涨

How to View the Surge? -- Bulls May Welcome an Opportunity to Retreat

After experiencing the weekend's range-bound volatility, the bulls finally showed their strength. The first two days of this week saw a wave of gains, with Bitcoin reaching a high of 75977 USD this morning, just one step away from 76000. So will the market continue to break through? My view remains cautious—the current position may be an opportunity for bulls to take profits or even reverse to open short positions.

Technical Analysis -- Rally in a Bear Market is Not a Reversal

First, we must face a fact: Bitcoin is still in a round of bear market. Before the price breaks through the weekly Bollinger Band middle rail near 82800, we cannot call it a reversal. Therefore, what we should do is reduce positions on rallies and appropriately short the market. Currently, from the daily chart, the 60-day moving average is exerting obvious pressure on price action, which has demand for pullbacks or even short-term reversals. From the larger weekly timeframe, the Ma10 moving average around 74245 also shows obvious resistance.

On the technical indicators, the MACD histogram has turned from negative to positive, and the MACD line continues to stay above the signal line, forming a golden cross pattern. Short-term momentum has significantly strengthened; however, we need to be alert to the risk of divergence between volume and price in subsequent movements. The KDJ indicator is currently at 83, in the overbought zone (KDJ values above 80 are typically considered overbought). Although there is no death cross signal yet, it has already shown signs of short-term overheating in the market. Combined with today's price surge and pullback movement, there may be a demand for technical correction in the short term.

News -- Iran-Israel War Bearish Effects Fully Digested; This Week Focus on Fed Rate Decision

1. The Iran-Israel conflict entered its 17th day today, with both sides still in intense active warfare. Peace negotiations are unlikely in the short term. Currently, the impact of the conflict on the crypto market has been mostly digested, and Bitcoin has established its own rhythm.

2. This week we need to focus on the Federal Reserve rate decision meeting early Thursday morning. The market expects the March meeting (March 17-18, 2026): probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged stands at 99.9%, with only a 0.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. This means the possibility of initiating rate cuts in this meeting is almost zero. Against this backdrop, if the Federal Reserve maintains rates unchanged, the bearish impact on the market is limited. Conversely, we need to focus on the Fed's remarks after the rate decision meeting. If they lean hawkish, it may pose bearish pressure on the market; if dovish, it would be bullish for crypto and precious metals.

Strategy Analysis -- Primarily Short, Maintain Tight Stops

In the absence of major positive news, we can only return to technical analysis to judge the market. From the indicators, we can cautiously be bearish in recent days. Short positions can be established above 74000, with stop losses set above 76000.