Over the weekend, Wall Street was absent, and retail traders were trapped in a desperate struggle. Will the real show begin on Monday next week?

Wall Street is closed, and institutional funds are temporarily shut off. This weekend, the crypto market has lost its main oxygen injection, turning into a pure retail gambling arena. In this “stockpile confrontation” situation, every holding decision tests participants’ nerves. The current calm is just the calm before the storm of next Monday’s opening.

Institutional fund injection paused, weekend market falls into stockpile confrontation

Last Friday also brought a positive signal: BTC ETF net inflow +15.1M in a single day, with Fidelity (FBTC) leading a bottom-fishing rally. But what about the weekend? Wall Street is on holiday, the fund channels are temporarily closed, and the market is like a machine with the power cut.

In the past two days, there have been no new ETF buy signals, and low-volume oscillation has become the main theme. For holders, without external capital support, they can only rely on the natural absorption capacity of the market itself. Fortunately, the weekend did not see the expected crash in prices, indicating that the bulls’ bottom line is still intact. Currently, BTC is at $70.68K, and ETH at $2.15K, both retraced but not broken.

Fear index hits bottom, chip prices are infinitely magnified

On the sentiment side, the fear index remains firmly in the single digits—Extreme Fear rating has persisted for several days. Such extreme emotion actually reveals a certain market balance: continuous fear bombardment has caused retail investors to experience “visual fatigue,” and nerves are so tight that further collapse is unlikely.

At this price level, fear has become cheap, while chips are expensive. Any small bullish candle could trigger a rebound, as scared retail investors are ready to reverse their positions.

Negative rate trap and liquidity risk, weekend trading tips

Derivatives data sends a clear warning signal. High-control coins like SUI, PIPPIN, etc., show abnormal negative rates of over -100%. What does this mean? Shorts have to pay astronomical interest every day.

This “holding cost” is magnified infinitely in the weekend low-volume environment. Special caution is needed during the Sunday night window (when US stock futures are about to open)—whales love to take advantage of low liquidity to sharply spike these crowded shorts, causing chain reactions of liquidations.

Trading advice: Never touch these negative rate coins over the weekend. Spot can be left idle, but futures must be cautious—small slippage of a few points is normal during weekends. Instead of betting on direction, wait for the real institutional action on Monday.

Stablecoins remain steady, troops still in the barrel

A positive sign is that USDT and USDC market caps remain high, totaling nearly $260 billion in stablecoins, acting like a “reserve team” on the sidelines. They haven’t significantly withdrawn, indicating funds are just observing and haven’t truly exited.

More importantly, MicroStrategy’s holdings remain high at $49.77 billion, and Saylor hasn’t moved. This signals market confidence— the bottom line of big capital is still intact. As long as these “bullish troops” are still loaded, the counterattack can happen at any time.

When will BlackRock strike? The key to whether next Monday can force a short squeeze

The real showdown next week depends on: Will BlackRock (IBIT) switch from selling to buying after US stock market opens?

Last Friday’s Fidelity bottom-fishing was just the appetizer. If BlackRock launches a new wave of buying next Monday, combined with the $260 billion stablecoin funds in the market, that would be the real signal of a short squeeze. At that point, retail investors scared and battered over the weekend will either flee in panic during the rebound or be squeezed out alive in the institutional frenzy.

The choice now is simple: cut losses in the quiet weekend, or take a gamble and rally with Wall Street on Monday?