US-Iran Conflict Roundtable: Bitcoin as a Safe Haven Asset? Global Supply Chain Impact and Future Inflation Expectations

Editor | Wu on Blockchain

This episode of Wu on Space mainly focuses on “What is the market actually trading after the escalation of the US-Iran conflict,” with guest participants including secondary researcher Minta, frontier tech investor Didier, and macro hedge fund PM Griffin Ardern. The discussion suggests that the current market is shifting from “short-term geopolitical shocks” to “long-term conflict pricing”: oil, shipping insurance, terminal commodity prices, and some central bank policy changes indicate that the war’s impact has begun to permeate global supply chains and inflation expectations. Based on this, the two guests believe that future attention should not be on individual safe-haven sentiments, but rather on the re-pricing of resources, transportation capacity, and payment/trading channels.

At the asset level, the discussion centers on several main lines: first, hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, copper, etc., with Bitcoin being re-evaluated by some funds as a “flight asset” in wartime, though short-term gains are still largely driven by liquidity and speculation; second, resource chains such as copper, energy, mining, oil shipping, and maritime transport, where the core logic is that supply chain disruptions and rising transportation costs will elevate their strategic value; third, the AI industry chain, especially storage, electricity, energy storage, and more speculative areas like agent payments and agent trading; fourth, commercial space, drones, defense, and strategic metals, which are seen as direct beneficiaries of war spillover effects and industry upgrade narratives. On the trading front, the overall strategy leans defensive: core positions can be maintained, but with increased protective puts, reduced reliance on a single USD asset, and moderate attention to currencies like the euro and Australian dollar.

Guest comments do not represent Wu’s views and do not constitute investment advice. Please strictly follow local laws and regulations.

Audio transcription by GPT may contain errors; please listen to the full podcast on platforms like Xiaoyuzhou.

Xiaoyuzhou:

Market Pricing and Opportunities in Crypto Assets Amid Escalation of US-Iran Conflict

Minta: After the US-Iran conflict entered its second half, the market initially rebounded, but looking at the situation, the conflict has not cooled down—in fact, there’s still a risk of escalation. The US continues to target Iran, which responds with missiles and drones, and Israel’s air defense system is under pressure, indicating that the impact of this conflict on global geopolitics and risk assets is deepening. I’d like to discuss: what exactly is the market trading? Is this conflict just a short-term disturbance, or is it already being priced as a long-term risk?

Griffin Ardern: I believe the market is shifting from “short-term event trading” to “long-term conflict pricing.” Take oil as an example: current price movements are no longer driven solely by the war itself but are the result of government interventions, genuine demand, and market negotiations. Especially under inflationary and political pressures, state power is becoming more deeply involved in pricing, which is a clear departure from the past market environment mainly dominated by traders, speculators, and upstream/downstream industries.

This long-term feature is also reflected in shipping, insurance, and terminal prices. Recently, shipping costs and insurance premiums have continued to rise, and commodities related to oil and trade routes are generally increasing in price, indicating that the market is beginning to view the conflict as a persistent risk rather than a short-term event. Central bank actions also reflect this, with inflation expectations re-emerging.

The crypto market’s performance is more complex. Options and futures data show that institutional expectations for BTC and ETH remain cautious in the medium term, yet prices are rising—more like a liquidity redistribution effect. Due to restrictions on traditional gold circulation and capital flows in the Middle East, crypto assets have become one of the few channels still capable of cross-border movement and less susceptible to regulation, reinforcing BTC and ETH’s “funding channel” attributes.

A very clear signal is that, historically, BTC has had higher forward premiums than ETH, but in the current environment, the implied yield gap between the two has almost disappeared. This indicates that the market is now valuing short-term liquidity needs more than long-term narratives. In the medium term, this liquidity-driven dynamic may support crypto performance, but once Middle Eastern capital withdraws, the market outlook for crypto is less optimistic. This is the core pricing logic of the current crypto market.

Oil Price Cap and US Stagflation Risks

Minta: You just mentioned that the Trump administration and Bissett are signaling “pressure on oil prices and controlling inflation.” But with signs of stagflation already appearing in the US and the Strait of Hormuz potentially remaining blocked, how much can these policies actually contain oil prices?

Griffin Ardern: I think they can at best delay the rise in oil prices but not truly suppress it. The US’s options are mainly releasing strategic petroleum reserves and increasing domestic energy alternatives, but both have clear limitations. Strategic reserves are limited, and alternatives like shale oil and heavy oil are more costly, which will ultimately feed into higher oil prices and inflation.

More critically, the market does not believe the US can restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz in the short term. If the passage remains blocked and reserves are gradually depleted, oil prices are likely to surge further once the market perceives that “the cards are almost played out,” possibly leading to short squeeze-like movements. In other words, Trump’s role is more about delaying rather than reversing the trend.

The real pressure behind this is not just crude oil itself but also the overall rise in shipping, insurance, and supply chain costs. These additional costs propagate along production, trade, and consumption chains, creating “pulse inflation” that pushes overall prices higher.

Deeper still, geopolitical shifts may be changing the energy trade and currency settlement landscape. If Gulf countries start to prioritize safety and alternative trading channels, the dollar’s dominance in international trade could weaken further. This would mean the US faces not only energy price increases but also imported inflation and a weakening dollar—double pressures.

Therefore, the US currently has few real options: raising interest rates risks damaging the economy and financial stability; not raising them could exacerbate inflation. As a result, the current oil and inflation risks may be deeper and more persistent than the market expects.

Market Risk Pricing Divergence and Bitcoin’s Stage Benefits

Minta: Under the current US-Iran war context, how are risk markets trading and pricing?

Didier: Overall, I feel US stocks are still relatively optimistic, pricing in a quick resolution of the conflict, especially a rapid easing of the Strait of Hormuz issue. But this view isn’t fully aligned with the actual outlook. If the conflict drags on for months, US stocks could face significant downside risk. So I think it’s prudent to buy some protective puts while the market remains optimistic.

Conversely, crypto markets have benefited this time. The Iran conflict temporarily restored Bitcoin’s narrative. Previously, some security incidents had shaken confidence, but the war has made more people realize that Bitcoin, in extreme environments, has better portability and transferability than gold, which has re-priced its “flight asset” attribute.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s recent strength is partly due to MicroStrategy’s large purchases. Over the past two weeks, it bought about 40,000 BTC, and its financing structure has shifted: no longer mainly relying on equity sales, but increasingly financing through issuing high-yield perpetual bonds to buy Bitcoin, significantly reducing equity dilution. This indicates that the financing path it envisioned a year ago is now starting to work.

Coupled with ETF net inflows and on-chain whale accumulation, this rally in Bitcoin is driven not just by geopolitical shocks but also by narrative repair, institutional buying, and capital inflows.

My overall view is: traditional risk markets, especially US stocks, are somewhat overly optimistic; while crypto markets have unexpectedly benefited from this conflict, performing even stronger.

Griffin Ardern: The current optimism in US stocks does provide some liquidity to crypto markets, but it’s mainly short-term capital, not long-term holdings. The recent rally benefits from the “flight asset” narrative and some spillover liquidity from US stocks, but investor long-term expectations haven’t improved, so the short-term opportunity exists, but risks remain in the longer term.

Additionally, the rising demand for perpetual bonds reflects increasing concerns about US inflation and sovereign debt risks. Whether short-term US Treasuries or long-term bonds, yields are rising, indicating that the market’s risk premium on dollar assets is increasing. Under this environment, funds are shifting more into high-yield, fundamentally strong corporate bonds.

When Bitcoin is revalued as a “flight asset,” investors are more willing to hold bonds related to Bitcoin that also offer yields, rather than just US Treasuries. This suggests a gradual shift from traditional sovereign credit to a more asset-backed, real-asset-supported credit system. Bitcoin is beginning to be viewed as a kind of special collateral.

This explains why high-quality corporate bonds are in demand while perpetual bonds based on Bitcoin logic, like MSTR’s, are also gaining popularity. The market’s real desire is for assets that can both diversify away from dollar risk and provide stable yields.

Medium- to Long-term Asset Allocation: Gold, Silver, Copper, BTC Revaluation, and New Opportunities in AI Chain and Oil Shipping

Minta: Following this logic, besides the directions already mentioned, what other assets do you think are suitable for medium- to long-term allocation? I personally think of gold mining stocks. If oil prices and geopolitical uncertainties persist, capital might continue flowing into hard assets, and gold miners tend to be more elastic than gold itself. Are there other assets worth focusing on for the medium to long term?

Didier: I remain bullish on Bitcoin. Although some recent events temporarily shook confidence, it will ultimately revert to its original logic. Looking ahead a few years, I believe both Bitcoin and gold have the potential to reach new highs. Silver is more elastic but also more speculative; its future trend depends on whether gold can continue its rally.

If the situation worsens further—for example, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for a long time—Bitcoin might again dip, providing a new low-entry opportunity. But from a medium- to long-term perspective, I think it’s not far from a bottom.

I also pay close attention to the AI industry chain. After the gains in core stocks like Nvidia slow down, the market is expanding into storage, optical communication, and power sectors, even spilling over into Japanese and Korean companies. In this context, Circle is gradually being included in the AI chain’s downstream, especially with the narrative of agent payments, making it relatively resilient at this stage.

Furthermore, as agent payments and agent trading develop, the demand for blockchain and cryptocurrencies could be reinforced. Future machine-to-machine payments, transfers, and transactions are likely to be more naturally suited to stablecoins and on-chain systems. Therefore, the stablecoin sector appears to be a very promising medium- to long-term direction, and Circle, as one of the few tradable assets, deserves close attention.

Additionally, oil shipping is another worthwhile area. It benefits in the short term from the Strait of Hormuz blockage, but the longer-term logic is that if some sanctioned countries re-enter the legitimate shipping system, freight rates could be supported. So capacity assets are also worth monitoring.

Minta: Currently, US stocks are trading AI CAPEX mainly around storage, optical modules, CPUs, etc. How do you see the current stage of silicon photonics? Also, will the timing of the US-Iran conflict influence the pace of these sectors’ hype?

Didier: I think the more certain directions now are storage and power.

Regarding power: there are several paths, including miners shifting to AIDC, nuclear power, and photovoltaics with energy storage. Uranium, in particular, is worth watching—especially if US-Russia relations don’t ease, the West might face uranium shortages, creating new opportunities. Overall, the power sector reflects structural opportunities from parallel supply chain systems.

For storage, I believe it remains one of the most solid directions within the AI industry chain, with bottlenecks expected to persist over the next two or three years. Although stocks like Micron and SanDisk are already well-positioned, capital is also shifting toward lower-valuation Japanese and Korean storage companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia. Overall, storage remains one of the strongest sectors this year.

Compared to that, optical modules and silicon photonics are more complex. There’s ongoing debate about whether to scale up or out, and disagreements over “optical vs. copper” in technical routes. So, while optical communication remains a major theme, its certainty isn’t as strong as storage.

If I had to identify a true expectation gap within the AI chain, I’d say it’s more about agent payments and agent trading. Circle is already a clear candidate, but the market’s understanding of this segment is still limited—many haven’t truly entered yet. As for agent trading, although there are few explicit targets now, platforms like Futu and Robinhood are likely to move in this direction.

My view is: storage and power are the more certain main lines; while agent payments and agent trading are areas with larger expectations gaps and less participant saturation.

Griffin Ardern: I’d add a more fundamental direction—copper.

Because whether it’s AI, power infrastructure, storage, or chips, copper is essential. Currently, copper supply and transportation are both impacted by supply chain restructuring. On the supply side, mainly Chile and Africa; on transportation, costs are rising due to the Red Sea blockade and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope.

Meanwhile, demand is also increasing: AI-driven power construction needs copper, storage and electronics industries require copper, and US strategic reserves are increasing copper demand. So, copper faces a situation of constrained supply, higher transportation costs, and rising demand—multiple forces pushing prices higher.

I believe the market underestimates medium- to long-term copper demand. Whether investing in resource-rich markets like Chile or directly in copper mining stocks, it’s worth considering.

More broadly, as long as key Middle Eastern waterways remain blocked, the regionalization of supply chains and rising transportation costs will continue to reinforce resource and metal assets, including precious metals, leading to a potential re-pricing wave.

From a dollar valuation perspective, copper is currently a relatively undervalued asset class.

Direct Beneficiaries of the US-Iran Conflict: Military, Shipping, and Resource Channels

Minta: For assets that directly benefit from the conflict, like oil shipping, drones, military, domestic resource chains, or even commercial space, which sectors do you think are most worth watching?

Didier: I believe commercial space is a major sector—possibly an upgrade opportunity similar to AI. As companies like SpaceX push toward commercialization, the entire sector is likely to enter a sustained expansion phase, becoming a key scene for new technology deployment.

Drones are also reaffirmed as an important direction in this war. They’ve become a core part of modern attack and defense systems, and their future evolution is likely to be AI-driven drone swarms working in coordination. Long-term, drones and AI are deeply intertwined.

Moreover, this conflict highlights the rapidly rising importance of AI intelligence analysis and satellite surveillance, which will increasingly integrate with military, AI, and space infrastructure.

As for strategic and critical metals, I believe they will become more important. Many key materials used in optical modules, aircraft engines, and high-end manufacturing are concentrated, quota-limited, and geopolitically risky. Supply restrictions will lead to price increases and supply chain restructuring.

Overall, the sectors most directly benefiting from the conflict are commercial space, drones, and strategic metals—these have strong long-term logic.

Griffin Ardern: Besides resources and energy, I see shipping as a very important sector.

This conflict has made the market realize that during wartime, money alone isn’t enough—resources must flow safely. Those who can ensure resource trade and transportation security will be more valuable. Recently, capital has flowed back into Geneva, Singapore, and Hong Kong—major commodity hubs—indicating a re-pricing of supply chain security.

In this context, the importance of shipping companies has risen sharply. Especially large shipping firms capable of reliably rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope or other alternative routes are worth watching. The real scarcity in the future won’t just be resources but the ability to transport resources securely.

Additionally, as the collateral and payment attributes of commodities strengthen, the assets of resource-owning miners will be revalued. If these miners can establish closer, more secure trade channels with the shipping system, their assets will be even more attractive.

Market Positioning and Defensive Strategies Amid High Valuations

Minta: Based on the previous analysis, returning to trading timing and position management, how would you handle different portfolios—Beta versus Alpha?

Didier: I think the overall stance now should be more defensive, as market sentiment remains optimistic. In such times, it’s prudent to retain protective positions.

But core holdings—storage, power, BTC—should still be maintained. After this correction, they’re not far from the bottom. Conversely, sectors that have fallen significantly and have room for recovery can be gradually added; those that have already risen a lot might be trimmed or adjusted.

For long-term Alpha opportunities, I wouldn’t be overly fixated on short-term timing—holding is key. But in this environment with high volatility, more aggressive positions should be more flexible, possibly shifting into lower levels or larger expectation gaps, and using protective puts to hedge.

Griffin Ardern: I suggest deploying some low-cost puts now. You don’t know exactly when a big drop might happen, but it’s likely to occur eventually. Using carry strategies can help spread out costs and build some protection in advance.

The main reason is that the current market rally is largely driven by short-term liquidity, not sustainable fundamentals. As geopolitical conflicts, inflation pressures, and policy changes propagate, market expectations for future interest rates are rising. High interest rates could become a norm in the coming years, which may weigh on risk assets.

Additionally, from a capital allocation perspective, it’s not advisable to hold only USD. The USD’s recent strength is mainly risk-avoidance-driven, but if the market begins to reprice the dollar’s purchasing power—especially in resource and trade sectors—the dollar may not stay strong.

Therefore, I’d consider diversifying currencies—adding some euros and resource currencies like AUD. Resource-rich countries benefit from rising commodity prices, and countries like Australia, with resource assets and stable policies, could see their currencies and assets perform better.

Overall, it’s not just about defensive positions but also about maintaining cash and currency diversification.