Gold plunged 7%, and silver dropped 14%, as the safe-haven logic failed during wartime.

Gold fell sharply to $4,551 per ounce in a single day (-7.2%), while silver plummeted from $77.77 to $66.93 (-13.9%). This is the sixth consecutive trading day of decline for gold, the longest streak since the end of 2024. The usual reasoning is that war drives up safe-haven assets, but this time is different. The dollar index (DXY +0.4%), rising U.S. Treasury yields, and inflation expectations fueled by oil price shocks have dashed hopes of a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve, leading to capital outflows from precious metals into U.S. dollar cash. In early February, CME increased gold margin requirements from 6% to 8% and silver from 11% to 15%, continuously squeezing out leveraged long positions. On the surface, it appears to be a collapse of gold and silver, but fundamentally, when inflation and war occur simultaneously, the pricing power of safe-haven assets shifts from fear to interest rates.