【US Stock Futures】Trump May Send Military, Take Over Iran's "Kharg Island" (Continuously Updated)

Oil price fluctuations. Axios citing four sources reports that the Trump administration is considering occupying or blockading Iran’s Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The island handles 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Taking control of the island could expose U.S. forces to greater risk of attack.

If successful, the move could ease oil prices; if it fails, it could escalate conflict. Markets are betting on Trump’s stance, with Brent crude rising 2% before fluctuating.

U.S. stock futures remain weak, with Dow futures down 135 points at 46,206, S&P 500 futures down 0.4% at 6,634, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.5% at 24,448.

Gold prices rose 0.2% to $4,660, while silver fell 1.1% to $72.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. See: Next page

Market Trends:

【15:14】Dow futures down 12 points at 46,329; S&P futures down 8 points at 6,652; Nasdaq futures down 60 points or 0.2% at 24,519.

【15:04】NY crude oil drops 1% to $94.6; Brent crude dips 0.3% to $108.3. Gold in New York up 1.6% at $4,681; spot gold up 0.7% at $4,681.

【15:04】【SMCI】Supermicro plunges 20% in after-hours trading amid co-founder’s indictment and allegations of illegal AI tech exports to China.

【12:54】【Gold Price Analysis】Gold once tested $4,500, the weakest weekly performance in six years. Analysts say the safe-haven effect is not clear, and short-term outlook remains weak.

【12:41】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI plans to integrate ChatGPT, Codex, and others into a super app to simplify user experience and compete with Anthropic.

【11:19】【AI + NVIDIA】Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: Tech leaders should be cautious to avoid causing AI panic. “Warnings are good, but scare tactics are not.”

【10:19】【Gold Price Trend】Gold faces its largest weekly decline in six years. What is the current price per ounce?

【08:20】【Iran Crisis】Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: No more strikes on Iran’s oil and gas facilities.

【07:58】【Iran Crisis】Bicent: Removing Iran’s oil sanctions allows oil to flow outside China, affecting market prices (updating).

【07:29】【Pearl Harbor Event】Trump meets Sanae Takami. Japanese reporter: Why was the war not announced beforehand? Trump: You didn’t tell me about Pearl Harbor either.

$1 and below for March 19 U.S. stock market overview====

Thursday: Trump halts Israel’s attack on oil fields; Brent crude drops most of its gains; gold continues to fall

Following attacks on Middle Eastern oil facilities, the U.S. responds by increasing oil supply, including potential release of strategic reserves, considering lifting long-standing sanctions on Iran’s oil, and approving purchases of certain Russian crude. Oil prices initially rose then retreated, with Brent reaching $119.13, up 10.9%, closing at $107.83. NY crude hit $101.48, up 5.4%, then fell 0.2% to $96.14.

Market Update:
Dow futures down 12 points; Nasdaq futures down 0.2%; oil prices retreat, NY crude down 1%.

Market Close:

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Trump wrote that “Israel will no longer attack this extremely important and valuable gas field,” and called on Iran to exercise restraint. Later, at the White House, he said he told them not to do it.

U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen recently stated that the U.S. will not interfere in oil-related financial markets but may further release oil reserves to lower prices. She admitted that the U.S. might unilaterally release strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to curb prices.

She also dismissed rumors that the Treasury would intervene in oil futures markets, emphasizing that the U.S. will not do so.

Global interest rate pressures caused gold to fall 3.5%, closing at $4,650.02; silver dropped 3.4% to $72.8251.

U.S. stocks declined: Dow down 203 points at 46,021; S&P 500 down 0.3% at 6,606; Nasdaq down 0.3% at 22,090.

After meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takami, Trump is expected to announce a nuclear project in the U.S. South on Thursday, a new initiative driven by the investment fund set up under the trade agreement. Sources say GE Vernova (GEV) and Hitachi will build BWRX-300 small modular reactors in Tennessee and Alabama, costing up to $40 billion.

Japanese investment benefits U.S. AI industry; tech stocks narrow losses or rebound. Nvidia (NVDA) down 1%, AMD up 2.9%. Alphabet (GOOGL) down 0.2%. Micron (MU) down 3.8% after earnings; Tesla (TSLA) down 3.2%.

Earlier, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry intercepted a ballistic missile over Yanbu, temporarily halting oil loading at Yanbu port, which spiked oil prices. Later, Yanbu resumed operations. The Ministry also reported a drone crash at the SAMREF refinery, a key Yanbu facility, with ongoing damage assessment.

Iran previously indicated that after attacks on its natural gas fields, the Yanbu-based South Pars refinery was among the targets. Additionally, Qatar’s largest LNG export facility and the UAE’s gas fields have been attacked, along with other energy sites in Kuwait, escalating Middle East tensions.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. See: Next page

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Market Trends:

【23:05】U.S. and Japan to jointly build a nuclear project in the U.S. South, with a $40 billion investment; Micron’s decline narrows to 2%.

【21:30】No intervention in oil financial markets, but reserves may be released; Brent crude up 5% in May, gold plunges 6%, Dow down 302 points.

【20:55】Yellen: No intervention in oil markets, but reserves may be released unilaterally.

【17:55】Iran bombs Saudi oil plant; Brent crude surges 10% to nearly $120; Dow futures down 42 points.

【14:11】Dow futures down 10 points at 46,525; S&P futures down 4 points at 6,672; Nasdaq futures down 43 points or 0.2% at 24,608.

【13:34】【MU Analysis】Micron reports after-hours drop over 4%; analysts say earnings now equal a full year’s profit, with increased capital expenditure as a double-edged sword.

【13:16】【Market Analysis】Powell’s hawkish tone causes Dow to plunge over 700 points; is oil price a good indicator for bottoming?

【12:18】【Fed Meeting】Analysis of March Fed decision; Aberdeen estimates only one rate cut in September.

【11:13】【Yen Trend】Bank of Japan maintains steady rates; USD/JPY at 4.91.

【10:44】【Oil Price Trend】Brent surpasses $110; if escalation continues, $120 is the new starting point.

【10:37】【Market Focus】SEC trial of Nasdaq’s “security tokenization” proposal.

【10:11】【AI + Chips】Elon Musk: a big fan of Nvidia and Jensen Huang; SpaceX AI and Tesla to order more Nvidia chips.

【08:47】【Gold Trend】Gold stabilizes near $4,800 after six days of decline.

【07:42】【AI + MU】Micron’s strong earnings, up 4% pre-market; capital spending expected to double in H2.

【07:01】【Iran Crisis】Oil facilities targeted by both sides; Israel strikes Iran’s oil and gas fields, Iran retaliates against US energy assets in Middle East (ongoing updates).

【06:29】【Fed Meeting】Powell: will remain chair until successor is appointed; uncertain about Middle East war impact; dot plot indicates one rate cut in 2026 and 2027.

$1 and below for March 16 U.S. stock market overview====

Wednesday: Dow drops 768 points to lowest this year; Powell: rising energy prices boost inflation expectations

FOMC holds rates steady; expects one cut this year and next. Middle East conflict has pushed oil prices up nearly 50% this month. Powell emphasizes that if inflation shows no progress, no rate cuts will be considered. He warns that rising energy prices will likely raise overall inflation expectations. After his remarks, the Dow fell 800 points.

Close: Dow down 768 points at 46,225; S&P down 1.36%; Nasdaq down 1.46%.

Market Close:

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Iran conflict escalates; Iran’s oil and gas fields targeted for the first time. Iran retaliates, attacking a U.S. refinery near Riyadh, causing a fire.

Iran’s state TV reports that the U.S. and Israel attacked the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf. Markets worry about continued attacks on Iranian oil fields. Brent crude initially surged 6.3% to $109.95; gold fell 3.4% to $4,834.51.

Iran’s National Gas Company later announced the fire at South Pars was extinguished, and prices stabilized. Trump previously said, “The only thing we haven’t destroyed is their oil, because rebuilding takes years.”

Iran claims it retaliated with airstrikes, successfully hitting U.S. assets near Riyadh, causing explosions and fires. Iran also attacked oil and gas facilities in the UAE and Qatar.

NY crude oil fell as much as 4.4%, then rebounded 3.33%, closing at $96.32, up 0.11%. Brent crude closed at $107.38, up 3.8%.

Fed Chair Powell, after the meeting, said if no new Fed chair is confirmed by May, he will serve as interim chair.

Economic data: February PPI rose 3.4% YoY, above expectations of 3% and previous 2.9%; MoM up 0.7%. Core PPI rose 3.9% YoY, above 3.7% expected; MoM up 0.5%.

Nuveen notes that recent geopolitical shocks have led markets to reassess the risk of tightening monetary policy but believes such adjustments are premature. They highlight that inflation remains a focus, but rising energy prices tend to slow growth, which could delay deflation rather than trigger sustained inflation.

They argue that current inflation environment differs from post-pandemic aggressive tightening. While commodity prices may temporarily boost inflation, the net effect is complex: higher energy costs suppress real income and demand. Oil shocks are more likely to delay deflation than reignite inflation.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. See: Next page

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Market Trends:

【17:55】Before FOMC announcement, Dow futures up 257 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.7%. Micron reports earnings.

【16:45】【AI + SpaceX】Elon Musk: SpaceX will become AI leader in a few years, surpassing all others combined.

【16:25】【AI + NVIDIA】Huang Jensen: OpenClaw is the next ChatGPT, greatly expanding personal AI use.

【14:03】Dow futures up 217 points at 47,565; S&P futures up 31 points at 6,804; Nasdaq futures up 151 points or 0.6% at 25,166.

【13:53】【Iran Crisis】S&P warns: Continued conflict could cause Gulf banks to face over $2 trillion in deposit outflows.

【13:15】【AI + Meta】Reports say China penalizes Meta’s acquisition of Manus, possibly restricting Manus executives from leaving China.

【13:05】【Iran Crisis】Citi forecasts Brent to rise to $110–120; how to stop oil prices from rising further?

【12:34】【US IPO】Swarmer, supported by AI drone and defense concepts, surges 5.2x on debut; after-hours up 44%.

【12:26】【AI + MU】Micron’s earnings up 4% pre-market, market cap over $500 billion; analysts see momentum similar to Nvidia’s past, with $1,000 target not far.

【11:28】【AI + Risks】Howard Marks of Oak Tree Capital: AI makes the world less predictable; investors underestimate AI’s impact.

【11:09】【AMD】AMD’s Su Zifeng reportedly visiting Samsung’s Pyeongtaek chip plant to expand wafer manufacturing, dining with Lee Jae-yong.

【10:42】【Iran Crisis】UAE Central Bank to strengthen banking stability; forex reserves over $270 billion, ready with policy tools.

【10:27】【AI + Amazon】Amazon CEO: Cloud revenue (AWS) could reach $600 billion in 10 years, double previous estimates.

【10:26】【Xi-Trump Meeting】Trump: Visit to China postponed about 5-6 weeks; both sides are rescheduling.

【10:16】【Gold Trend】Gold holds near $5,000 ahead of Fed decision; focus on Fed’s view on energy prices and labor market.

【09:50】【New IPO】OpenAI reportedly to go public as early as Q4.

【08:40】【AI + NVIDIA】Nvidia preparing to launch Groq AI chips in China; Huang Jensen: restarting H200 production.

【07:26】【TME Earnings】Tencent Music’s stock plunges 25%, down to 75% of previous value; strong earnings and dividend hike.

【07:17】【Iran Crisis】Iran’s second-in-command, Laijani, killed by Israel; highest-level assassination since Khomeini (ongoing).

【07:00】【Parent Company】Hong Kong’s Baby Kingdom parent withdraws US IPO application; likely to trigger tech park rent subsidy swap deal.

$1 and below for March 17 U.S. stock market overview====

Tuesday: Iran intensifies attacks on Middle East energy sites; oil jumps 3%; Trump delays China visit by a month

Iran retaliates with drone strikes across the Middle East. Trump calls for escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz; lack of international response causes oil to rise 3%. Brent crude hits $103.61; NY crude $96.01.

Market Close:

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Trump in White House interview expects to visit China in about 5 weeks. “We are working with China, no issues there. Looking forward to seeing President Xi. We have good relations. China’s economy has become very beneficial to us, very different from before.”

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: Has obtained approval to sell H200 AI accelerators to many Chinese clients, ramping up production. GTC conference continues through Thursday; stock down 0.7%, at $181.93.

UAE’s largest ultra-acidic natural gas project hit by drone; Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on fire, affecting loading operations. Also, Shah gas field in Abu Dhabi, with a daily capacity of 1.28 billion cubic feet, hit by drone attack, still shut down.

Iran escalates attacks on Saudi Arabia, firing nearly 100 drones—far above the usual 25 per day—marking the largest single-day strike since the conflict began. As clashes continue, Iran relies more on drones than missiles, which are cheaper and can be launched in large numbers, challenging air defenses.

Another oil tanker attacked near the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Market anticipates this week’s Fed decision; the dollar index down 0.1% at 99.58; 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.2%.

U.S. stocks rebound weakly: Dow up 46 points at 46,993; S&P 500 up 0.2% at 6,716; Nasdaq up 0.5% at 22,479.

Trump previously urged European, Japanese, and Korean allies to help secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but some are reluctant. He criticized that some allies are long-term recipients of U.S. protection but would not support the U.S. in a crisis.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote: “Most NATO allies have told us they don’t want to get involved in our Middle East actions against the Iranian regime. Almost every country agrees with what we’re doing and believes Iran must not have nuclear weapons in any way or form.

But I’m not surprised. We spend hundreds of billions annually protecting these countries, but I’ve always thought NATO is a one-way street—we protect them, but they don’t do anything for us, especially when we need help.

Fortunately, we have destroyed Iran’s military—the navy is gone, the air force is gone, their air defenses and radars are gone, and perhaps most importantly, most of their leadership is gone. They can no longer threaten us, our Middle East allies, or the world!

Because of our military success, we no longer ‘need’ or desire NATO’s help—we never did! Same with Japan, Australia, or South Korea.

In fact, as the President of the world’s most powerful nation, I want to say we don’t need anyone’s help!”

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. See: Next page

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Market Trends:

【21:31】Dow opens up 375 points at 47,321; Nasdaq up 0.6%; S&P up 44 points at 6,743.

【19:37】Dow futures up 21 points; Nasdaq futures down 0.1%; S&P futures down 1 point.

【14:05】Oil rebounds, Brent crude up over 4% at $104.8.

【13:48】Dow futures down 150 points at 47,139; S&P futures down 23 points at 6,732; Nasdaq futures down 97 points or 0.4% at 24,794.

【13:25】【AI + Software】Morgan Stanley: AI disrupts software industry; private credit default rate may rise to 8%.

【13:19】【Iran Crisis】South Korea’s Sinokor, a second-generation shipping company, earns $500,000 in a day using ultra-large oil tankers—an unusual profit amid conflict.

【13:16】【Oil Price Trend】Asian trading hours see oil prices rebound; Brent remains above $100. Analysts say “pulsed” fluctuations are normal, unlikely to stay high long-term amid supply recovery.

【12:52】【Iran Crisis】Australia’s central bank raises interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.1%; warns sustained fuel price increases will push inflation higher.

【11:46】【Fed Chair】Court documents show Powell may stay on as Fed chair after his term ends if no new appointment is confirmed.

【11:23】【AI + Chips】AI-driven demand! SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-won: Global chip shortage may last until 2030.

【10:44】【Nvidia】Nvidia collaborates with BYD, Geely to develop Level 4 autonomous vehicles.

【10:22】【Yen Trend】USD/JPY drops to 4.9; Japanese finance minister again intervenes to support yen. Analysts say BOJ’s no-rate hike stance makes yen weakness hard to stop.

【09:42】【Gold Trend】Gold stabilizes near $5,000; USD weakens, markets assess emergency oil reserve releases.

【08:42】【Fed Rate Cuts】Morgan Stanley: No change in rate hikes despite oil surge; expects Fed to resume rate cuts in June and again in September.

【08:25】【Apple】Apple launches AirPods Max 2, pre-order at ¥4,599, available in five colors; upgraded H2 chip, noise cancellation 1.5 times better.

【08:01】【AI + Recruitment】Elon Musk’s xAI hiring bankers, credit experts to enhance Grok financial strategies.

【07:47】【Xi-Trump Meeting】Trump delays China visit by about 5-6 weeks, citing war and scheduling adjustments.

【07:28】【AI + NVIDIA】Huang Jensen: Nvidia’s NemoClaw “lobster farming” includes sandbox and security features, aiming for safer AI.

【07:03】【AI + NVIDIA】Huang Jensen: expects chip revenue to reach $1 trillion by 2027; possibly conservative.

【06:31】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Unclear who controls Iran; no one says Mujehtaba is 100% healthy; very unusual (ongoing).

$1 and below for March 16 U.S. stock market overview====

Monday: Oil drops over 2%; Dow rises 387 points; Trump delays China visit by a month

Dollar index and oil prices decline; NY crude down 5.3% at $93.5; Brent down 2.4% at $100.66; dollar index down 0.6% at 99.8; 10-year Treasury yield drops 0.06% to 4.216%.

Market Close:

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Due to G7 countries releasing strategic reserves, short-term supply is ample, but Iran’s ongoing crisis remains a concern. Trump announced he postponed his China trip by about a month, citing the importance of directing the Iran conflict from Washington. The delay reflects Trump’s expectations about the duration of the Iran war.

Dow up 387 points, closing at 46,946; S&P up 1% at 6,699; Nasdaq up 1.2% at 22,374.

Foreign media PBS reports Trump says Iran is not ready for a deal, and believes that once the war ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a rolling stone. He believes the war won’t last long. He also said Iran has extensive infrastructure in Tehran that could be destroyed in an hour, but doing so would require years of rebuilding and cause trauma, so he prefers to avoid it. He also mentioned he does not want to destroy pipelines on Kharg Island, as damage would take years to repair.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNBC that the U.S. does not mind some Iranian, Indian, and Chinese ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, considering Iran’s release of ships as a natural opening, and hopes global oil supply remains sufficient. She said any measures to ease oil prices depend on how long the Iran conflict continues.

Key stocks: Nvidia (NVDA) up 2.6%, closing at $184.93, after Huang’s GTC speech.

Data center company Nebius (NBIS) up 15.4%, announced it will provide $12 billion of dedicated computing capacity for Meta starting early 2027, with Meta committing to buy up to $15 billion more. Meta shares rose 1.9%.

This week’s focus: U.S. February PPI data released Tuesday; Federal Reserve meeting results on Thursday. Major central banks including ECB, BoE, and BoJ also scheduled to meet. Micron (MU) reports earnings Wednesday after market close.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. See: Next page

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Market Trends:

【22:55】Trump: Once war ends, oil prices will fall sharply; Dow up 393 points, oil down 1%.

【21:30】Yellen: U.S. does not oppose Chinese ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow up 369 points, oil down 1%.

【18:50】Middle East war enters third week; Dow futures up 152 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.7%. This week is a “super rate decision week.”

【13:47】Dow futures up 226 points at 47,112; S&P futures up 39 points at 6,724; Nasdaq futures up 147 points or 0.6% at 24,753.

【12:59】【AI + Chips】Tesla to develop its own chips? Elon Musk announces launch of giant AI chip factory “Terafab.”

【12:06】【AI + Gemini】Gemini now available in Hong Kong! Google: expanding Gemini to all Hong Kong users, starting with web version, mobile app later.

【11:07】【Xi-Trump Meeting】Trump: “Possible delay” of about 5-6 weeks for China visit.

【10:14】【Iran Crisis】IEA: Over 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves soon to be released, prioritizing Asia; Europe and US to wait until late March.

【19:28】【Gold Trend】Gold falls below $5,000 amid entering third week of Middle East conflict, oil prices continue rising.

【11:36】【Iran Crisis】U.S. Energy Secretary: No guarantee oil prices will fall in weeks; after military strikes, will seize the Strait (ongoing).

【07:30】【Global Outlook】This week is a “super rate decision week”; Fed likely to keep rates unchanged on Thursday.

【07:30】Middle East tensions intensify; last week, Dow slightly higher at open, then rose as much as 446 points, then fell 183 points, closing at 46,558 (down 119). S&P down 0.61%, Nasdaq down 0.93%.

Market Close:

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Last week, the U.S. stock market was affected by escalating Iran conflict, with Iran’s oil and gas fields targeted for the first time. Iran retaliated by attacking a U.S. refinery near Riyadh, causing a fire.

Iran’s state TV reports U.S. and Israel attacked South Pars gas field in Persian Gulf. Markets worry about further attacks. Brent crude initially surged 6.3% to $109.95; gold fell 3.4% to $4,834.51.

Iran’s National Gas Company announced fire extinguished; prices stabilized. Trump previously said, “The only thing we haven’t destroyed is their oil, because rebuilding takes years.”

Iran claims retaliation with airstrikes, hitting U.S. assets near Riyadh, causing explosions and fires. Iran also attacked oil and gas facilities in UAE and Qatar.

NY crude oil fell as much as 4.4%, then rebounded 3.33%, closing at $96.32, up 0.11%. Brent crude closed at $107.38, up 3.8%.

Fed Chair Powell, after the meeting, said if no new Fed chair is confirmed by May, he will serve as interim chair.

Economic data: February PPI rose 3.4% YoY, above expectations; MoM up 0.7%. Core PPI rose 3.9% YoY, above 3.7%; MoM up 0.5%.

Nuveen notes that recent geopolitical shocks have led markets to reassess the risk of tightening monetary policy but believes such adjustments are premature. They highlight that inflation remains a focus, but rising energy prices tend to slow growth, which could delay deflation rather than trigger sustained inflation.

They argue that current inflation environment differs from post-pandemic aggressive tightening. While commodity prices may temporarily boost inflation, the net effect is complex: higher energy costs suppress real income and demand. Oil shocks are more likely to delay deflation than reignite inflation.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. See: Next page