China’s Russian oil imports spike in early 2026, but Iran war changes outlook | South China Morning Post

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2026-03-20 13:14:46

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China’s imports of discounted Russian crude oil surged in January and February, though analysts suggest volumes could moderate in the coming months as the war in Iran increases global competition for Russian oil.

In the first two months of the year, Russia’s shipments of crude to China rose 40.9 per cent year on year to 21.8 million tonnes, according to Chinese customs data released on Friday.

But the total import value rose just 5.8 per cent in US dollar terms.

“China has been an opportunistic oil buyer, capitalising on periods of low oil prices to fill its stockpile,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

He said China was likely to have been aware of rising geopolitical risks and to have stockpiled crude in January and February, when oil markets had not yet priced in the Middle East conflict.

Russian crude – which has traded at a steep discount since Western sanctions were first imposed following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine – comprised over one-fifth of China’s total imported crude by volume in the first two months of the year.

But a shifting of sanctions policies designed to stabilise global energy markets and rising demand from other countries amid the US-Israel war with Iran could moderate Russia’s shipments of crude to China in the coming months, analysts said.

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