Major news from the Strait of Hormuz! The Israel Defense Forces have issued their latest statement!

Hormuz Strait latest updates.

Today, according to Xinhua News Agency, a Greek bulk carrier with AIS (Automatic Identification System) activated is passing through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf. This is the first vessel to do so in a traceable state since March 2. Additionally, Japanese sources report that on the 20th, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated in a phone interview that, after negotiations with Japan, Iran is willing to allow ships related to Japan to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Regarding Middle East conflicts, CCTV News reports that on the 21st, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement saying they are striking “Iranian regime targets” in Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran’s retaliatory actions continue. According to U.S. media, Iran launched two medium-range ballistic missiles at the U.S.-UK joint military base Dig Gorgia located in the central Indian Ocean.

Latest Developments in the Strait of Hormuz

On March 21, Xinhua News Agency, citing Lloyd’s List from the UK on the 20th, reports that a Greek bulk carrier with AIS activated is passing through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf.

The vessel, named “Jacometti,” flies the Liberian flag and is operated by a Greek bulk shipping company. AIS shows it is carrying “food supplies destined for Iran.”

The report states that on the 20th local time, the vessel bypassed Larak Island, following a route similar to the “safe corridor” designated by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

At least nine other ships are said to be using the same route, passing near the Iranian coast and circumventing Larak Island, with IRGC visually confirming ships passing through the strait.

The report also mentions that on March 5, a ship flying the Panamanian flag transited westward through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf, but it was operating in stealth mode with AIS turned off.

Iran’s Islamic Republic Broadcasting quoted the report, saying that ships should keep their AIS transponders on if they agree to pay a $2 million transit fee, as it makes passage safer.

According to CCTV News and Japanese sources, on the 20th, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated in a phone interview that Iran is willing to allow ships related to Japan to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after negotiations. He said that both sides are discussing the temporary unblocking.

As conflicts escalate, many ships related to Japan are stranded in the Persian Gulf. For Japan, which relies on Middle Eastern oil imports for over 90%, whether ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz is critically important.

Araghchi stated that Iran has not blockaded the Strait of Hormuz but has restricted passage for ships of hostile countries attacking Iran. He added that ships from non-hostile countries wishing to pass can do so after negotiations with relevant nations, with safety guarantees.

Israeli Defense Forces Statement

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 21st, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement saying they are striking “Iranian regime targets” in Tehran.

Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya TV quoted Israeli sources that Iranian security commander Ahmad-Reza Radan was targeted in the airstrike on Tehran that day, but no further details were provided. Iran has not issued any statements.

Additionally, The Wall Street Journal on the 20th, citing sources, reports that Iran launched two medium-range ballistic missiles at the U.S.-UK joint military base Dig Gorgia in the central Indian Ocean, with one failing mid-flight. U.S. warships launched interceptors at the other missile, but it’s unclear if it was intercepted. The timing of this event was not specified.

Multiple U.S. officials told the WSJ that Iran launched two medium-range ballistic missiles about 4,000 km from its homeland toward Dig Gorgia, neither hitting the base. This indicates Iran’s military capabilities extend far beyond the Middle East.

Previously, Iranian media reported that Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran’s missile range is limited to within 2,000 km, and these missiles are purely for defense and deterrence.

The Chagos Islands, located about 750 km southwest of Mauritius in the Indian Ocean, were ceded to Britain in 1965. The following year, the UK leased the main island, Diego Garcia, to the U.S. for an airbase. On May 22, 2025, the UK and Mauritius signed an agreement transferring sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Under the agreement, the Diego Garcia military base will be leased to the UK and the U.S. by Mauritius.

Former U.S. President Trump claimed that the U.S. military might use the Diego Garcia airport against Iran. Britain initially refused U.S. use of the base citing international law. On March 1, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that the UK had agreed to allow the U.S. to use the base for “specific and limited” defense purposes.

UBS Warning

Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices continue to surge. On Friday, WTI crude futures rose by 2.27%, closing at $98.32 per barrel; Brent crude futures jumped 3.26%, closing at $112.19 per barrel, the highest since mid-2022.

UBS’s latest report states that multiple adverse factors facing the U.S. economy are making this round of oil price increases more damaging than previous ones.

The report notes that although international oil prices remained high from 2011 to 2014, the U.S. shale oil boom provided a buffer against high oil prices—losses in consumer purchasing power were partly offset by job creation, capital expenditure, and industrial output driven by shale oil investment. After 2014, U.S. shale oil investment sharply declined, and this buffer has largely disappeared, making current oil price increases harder to offset for the U.S. economy.

The report emphasizes that the current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. differs significantly from previous high oil price cycles. First, the U.S. labor market is weaker than between 2011 and 2014; second, U.S. households have less capacity to withstand external shocks; third, inflationary impacts are more intense, and rapid oil price increases have a stronger pass-through effect on overall prices. These factors suggest that the current oil price rise could have a much greater negative impact on U.S. economic growth than expected.

The Wall Street Journal recently published a survey of economists, showing a 32% chance of a recession in the U.S. within a year—higher than the 27% forecast in January. If the average oil price reaches $138, the recession risk could rise to 50%.