U.S. Big Banks Index $BKX is flashing a warning signal.

Since 2020, every major stress event has coincided with a breakdown in BKX below its 200 day SMA.
Mar2020 (COVID crash): BKX -46% / SP -34%
Feb2022 (Russia invades Ukraine): BKX -30% / SP -25%
Mar2023 (SVB collapse): BKX -33% / SP -9% (the only smaller drop)
Mar2025 (Trump's Tariffs Drama ): BKX -19% / SP -20%
Mar2026 (U.S.–Iran escalation): BKX ? / SP ~ -5% (so far)
$BTC is holding relatively well so far, adding an interesting divergence to watch, but will it last?
Historically, weakness in banks has aligned with broader financial stress.
With banks now breaking down again, the key question becomes: what follows next?